Welcome to GWarner's blog

+8.864

Dogs: 7-4 +4.571
Favorites: 7-3 +6.068
Over: 4-3 +0.70
Under: 9-13-1 -5.248
Halftimes: 3-0 +2.773

2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657

Yesterday: 2-2-1 -0.069

-Way off on the UNC-MSU total as they ran all day and UNC shot 58%. Providence ML was a good play, as was VT -2.5, but a really tough ending in the WFU game. Deacs up 3 at halftime and Purdue got in the bonus early while WFU struggled to score. Can't believe the late foul, but I got an early number at 11 and I'm very happy about that. USF-COL should have gone over, but the Dons only had 7 points in the 1st 10 mins of the 2H so that was done for after that...

2008-09 TEX wagers: 7-1 +5.848
2009-10 TEX wagers: 3-0 +3.02

...still looking for insight on teams with pace changes due to new systems or players graduating as I have a little bit of a list going.

Variations tracking: 13-16-1 -4.548
-19.0: 1-0 +1.00
-9.0: 1-1 -0.10
-8.5: 1-1 -0.10
-7.0: 1-0 +1.00
-6.0: 0-1 -1.10
+4.0: 0-1 -0.998
+5.5: 0-1-1 -1.10
+6.0: 1-0 +1.00
+6.5: 0-2 -2.20
+7.5: 1-1 -0.10
+8.0: 0-1 -1.10
+8.5: 2-2 -0.20
+9.0: 2-1 +0.90
+10.0: 0-1 -1.10
+10.5: 0-1 -1.10
+11.0: 1-1 -0.10
+13.5: 1-0 +1.00
+16.0: 0-1 -1.10
+17.5: 1-0 +1.00

adding:
Duke -4 (-108) @ Wisconsin: 1.08/1 (Matchbook)
Hate Duke, but I don't think the Kohl Center can propel a weaker Wisconsin team to win or cover this number. Duke is again more athletic than a team they play, which is quite a statement, and they will put out a collectively taller lineup than the Badgers will. I worry about Trevon Hughes, but I think the Dukies will make him their focal point and I think the big bodies can stifle Jon Leuer inside.

Washington State-Gonzaga OVER 141.5 (-110): 1.1/1 (5Dimes)
Got 6.5 points of variation and it is odd to me that the line steamed downwards with WSU playing as fast as they have been playing. I think Mark Few will try to run all day with Demetri Goodson, and the Zags will force a coach to use players who aren't there to run to play quickly and that will lead to a lot of easy buckets.

current card:
Duke -4 (-108) @ Wisconsin: 1.08/1
Washington State-Gonzaga OVER 141.5 (-110): 1.1/1

good luck