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9/25/10: VT-BC Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA

-12.348


Faves 14-16-2 -3.43
Dogs 13-16 -2.843
Over 1-3 -2.20
Under 5-8 -3.85
2nd Half 3-3 -0.175
Buyoffs 0-0 +0.00
Props 1-0 +0.50
Futures 2-2 -0.35

2007-08: 57.7% +22.127
2008-09: 51.7% -5.112
2009-10: 37.1% -15.303

Season:
Week One: 2-3
Week Two: 2-3
Week Three: 3-2
Week Four: 4-3
Week Five: 4-3
Week Six: 2-5-1
Week Seven: 2-3
Week Eight: 2-3
Week Nine: 3-3
Week Ten: 3-2
Week Eleven: 2-2 
Week Twelve: 2-3 
Week Thirteen: 0-4
Week Fourteen: 1-0 
Bowl Week: 5-7-1

futures:
Boise State (+125) receive more poll votes than Florida
South Carolina (-160) receive more poll votes than OkSt
Iowa OVER 9 wins (+130): 7-5
Ucla UNDER 5.5 wins (-130): 4-8

Bowl Week:
-Leaned this way before the turmoil surrounding this Iowa program, and I think this is such a tough matchup for the Hawks as well. Frankly, I loved this team preseason and I thought they had a real shot at finishing the year 12-0. Injuries ravaged their team, but they still had the players they needed to win the Big Ten and instead gave away victories @Arizona, vs. Wisconsin, @Northwestern, vs. Ohio State and @Minnesota. Five losses when they really should have won all but one of them, and they showed a huge weakness against teams that spread them out and throw short passes. That’s Mizzou’s offense to a T, and now they are without their most experienced receiver in Derrel Johnson-Koulianos who was arrested at his home for drugs. The worst thing about it is Kirk Ferentz losing his mind and deciding to go on a rampage to the point where they may have lost their best WR (McNutt), starting RB (Robinson), two of their outstanding DL (Ballard & Binns) and a few players in their secondary. They will be in big trouble against what proved to be a good team considering my 0-3 record fading them this season.
Missouri -3.5 (-110, 2H) vs. Iowa
-Mizzou has found out that they can throw all over the Hawks secondary and I think they can cover the full game line. I also think there's a good backdoor opportunity if Iowa somehow has a ten-point advantage late.
Baylor ML (+125) vs. Illinois
-Advantages in motivation, coaching and location means I'll take BU. I think RGIII will have a huge day through the air on a weak Illinois secondary, but I would be lying if I told you I wasn't scared of the BU rush defense giving up 300 yards.
Nebraska -7 (-110, 2H) vs. Washington
-A tough start from Nebraska will be overcome as they are better, they've been stopping UDub and the missed FG before the half is a big momentum swinger believe it or not. Jake Locker could always get the good ole "medics won't let him go back out" after halftime, but even with him I'll play the 'Huskers.
Michigan State +7.5 (-105) vs. Alabama
-Motivation is on Sparty's side, talent to Alabama of course, coaching to Alabama, but I also think Saban won't want to run up the score on his former employer and supposedly he has a close relationship with D'Antonio. I thought this line would be 4, so below a TD I'm in considering an open backdoor whenever Alabama is on defense with that poor secondary.
Wisconsin ML (+140) vs. TCU
-I simply disagree that TCU played a better schedule this year than Wisconsin, and their small/speedy defense will get pushed all over the field today. Wisconsin's offense will run smoothly as they don't really rely on timing like TCU's does, and Patterson has no idea how to prepare his team for a bowl game as the two losses in the past two years led him to changing stuff around. If Wisconsin can't run I don't expect to win, but I think they can do what they wish.
Wisconsin +3 (-127, 2H) vs. TCU
-A quick 3-and-out in the 2H will win Wisconsin this game. They won the yardage battle in the 1H by almost a football field and left 7 points on the board (Tune drop and the missed FG) in that half. They're winning this game, or else I have +4 for the game and I don't think TCU can cover this number.
Connecticut +16 (-105) vs. Oklahoma
Arkansas ML (+135) vs. Ohio State
-I feel like everyone's making a case for Ohio State to win this game, but covering 3 or 3.5 is a whole 'nother story (even though I'll be on the ML). I disagree with articles regarding the Arkansas-Alabama game because Mallett made a boneheaded mistake to throw one of his interceptions and the team had the lead the entire time so they didn't really need to score. I think Knile Davis is going to be a huge player in this game, along with the Arkansas OL. If Ohio State can get pressure and force Mallett to move, the Razorbacks are in trouble. Fortunately, tOSU was 90th in the NCAA this year with 19 sacks from their best sack totaler (4.5) being a DL and their sack numbers would suggest they don't do the sneaky blitzes to confuse QBs because only 3 guys from the secondary got credited and the bigger totals were all down linemen.
I can't find stats on sacks allowed by the Hogs, though, so that's holding me back from a full write-up, but I don't think this defense compares to the rest of the SEC and Knile's emergence has been a godsend for this type of game and his back-up Wingo is very capable. I also don't think last year's performance against Oregon with time to prepare has much to do with Arkansas this year, and the Big Ten's 1-5 bowl record so far isn't too impressive. The suspensions have been a dark cloud that will have most notably Pryor and Herron along with the other guys pressing to look good in what could be their final college game so they can avoid the stupid suspension. Think about it. Two semesters of college isn't worth it to these kids when they can be pros without attending another class. I also think the SEC speed on defense will make Pryor look less impressive than his billing, which isn't much, and Arkansas is going to be very motivated to shine in their first BCS bowl game. 
Boston College +7.5 (-110) vs. Nevada
-Boston College is made to compete with better teams and I think this is the perfect place for them to do it. A lot is going to be made about the travel, but it’s bowl week and I’m not sure that’s really relevant here as I doubt we’ll see a raucous group following Nevada to San Francisco. Nevada loves to run the pistol offense that they made famous, but BC is built to stop the run and I think they’re going to force Colin Kaepornick to win the game with his arm. Kaepornick is certainly capable of doing that, but I think the major deficiency lies on the other side of the ball. The Wolfpack have had a terrible rush defense for years and I don’t think it will do anything special against BC’s rush attack. Everyone knows BC is running, yet opponents still can’t stop it. I’m not sure if RB Montell Harris will be able to go after knee surgery the week before the game against Syracuse, but their back-up proved me wrong and ran very well in the Carrier Dome. I don’t see any way the porous Nevada defense can stop BC’s offense if they play smart football, and that is what the Eagles are known to do. I don’t think I can play BC to win, but getting the hook on the touchdown is enough for me. I’d advise playing it now rather than waiting to see some late money on the favorite because losing the hook on the 7 is much more likely than getting back to the opener.
Auburn -3 (-102) vs. Oregon
-I was 1-3 betting Auburn games this year with the lone win on them against Arkansas and losing against them with LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama. Maybe that means I’m not qualified to make a wager, but I wanted to grab -102 because I think plenty of people will be betting the Tigers here and I didn’t want to miss 3 at a reduced juice. This play is based on the offensive and defensive line advantage that I think AU has, which will certainly be tested by Oregon’s fast-paced offense. I think Auburn has proven via the Iron Bowl that they can come back from any deficit against a quality defense and win, which should scare any Oregon backer. The Ducks defense is better than they get credit for and I felt this way pre-season with all the experience returning, but I don’t think Pac 10 defenses matchup well with SEC offenses. The left coast guys are more about speed and they will be too small to compete against AU’s line if the Tigers are in the game and can run the ball. I don’t expect Auburn’s secondary to make any big plays, but as long as they don’t get shredded I think their advantage with the front seven will force Oregon to rely on the pass. Darron Thomas has been way better than expected, but I still want to see him handle a solid pass rush because no one in the Pac 10 has anyone on the level of Nick Fairley playing on their DL. UO is seen as a fast team because they play in a conference full of terrible teams, and I was not a buyer of the Pac 10 in the non-conference and I’m certainly not a buyer now against what has proven to be the best team in the land. Also like the under, but I think an early Auburn lead will put a ton of pressure on Oregon to keep up. This pressure is what killed South Carolina in the SEC championship, and I think it will eventually doom the Ducks.
Emory Blake OVER 3 receptions (+100)
-I think he's a lesser key to their offense compared to Darvin who will be going deep all night occupying the safety.

Week Fourteen:
Washington State +9 (-110) vs. Washington
-Played this on the open based on the fact that I made this line closer to a field goal than a touchdown, and it was bigger. The world loves Jake Locker, and I do too, but in reality this Washington team has never made a bowl game in his four years at the school and they need a road win in Pullman to do it. Wazzu is undoubtedly a bad football team, but they have shown life this year covering for me against Cal and when they beat Oregon State SU. The Huskies are probably going to win this game, but I don’t think they can cover this big of a spread because this is one of the most competitive rivalries in the country. When these two teams play you can truly throw out the records, and believe it or not this game may be for HC Paul Wulff’s job. I think the Cougs will fight long and hard in this one and they have a big-legged kicker so as long as they score a few times I think they cover.

Week Thirteen:
Alabama -4 (-110) vs. Auburn
-Thought this would be around 3 a few weeks ago, but early line projections had this bigger and I think this is the max I would play it. All in all, Auburn is a far inferior team on the road and I’ve struggled fading them so far this season and it’s time for me to get some of that back. Besides LSU, this Alabama defense has the best chance to stop Cam Newton and I expect them to force him to beat them through the air similar to Ole Miss who simply didn’t have the corners to compete. All the drama surrounding Auburn isn’t a good thing, but I don’t know how big of an effect that’ll have in the game. This is the biggest rivalry in the state and probably the biggest game in recent memory with such ridiculous title implications directly on the line here. I expect Nick Saban to take this on himself to be prepared for the quirky offense that Gus Malzahn runs, and an early deficit for Auburn will result in the pressure mounting until a crucial mistake by one of the skill players dooms the road team. I’m thinking a poorly-timed fumble by Mario Fannin, but even if that doesn’t happen I think Alabama has the offense to keep Camputer off the field and the defense to limit him while he is. The Bama running game will be a huge part in this victory, and I expect an early chop block to send a message to Nick Fairley about playing like the dirty SOB he is. Take the 15 yards to send a message, and that’s if it’s called because you never know with SEC officials in the trenches. I bet the home crowd will be huge for the Tide, caring more about Auburn to get a title shot the year after Alabama won more than they care for their own team. Don’t love the 4 points as that will be tough to cover if it’s close and certainly opens up for a backdoor loss, but it’s the highest number I wanted to lay and I think this game will be decided by touchdowns so I’ll take the Tide D over the Tigers.
Syracuse -2.5 (-110) vs. Boston College
-I like the Syracuse rush defense and I think the home crowd will be a factor in this old Big East rivalry. A freshman QB in the dome is a major concern, especially when his go-to-guy in the backfield is missing. RB Montel Harris was the reason I lost my bet on Clemson @BC earlier this year, and he’s their heart and soul offensively. I’m not convinced they have a solid back-up considering how Harris has carried the ball 235 more times than the next guy, and he truly is their only offense. I expect the BC defense to come to play as they always do, but they rely on the winds in Boston to mess with opposing QBs (at least that’s some sort of explanation on how BC plays so much better at home despite having one of the tamest crowds I have ever seen) and they don’t get that in the Carrier Dome. Nassib has been better than I expected when you consider how Greg Paulus started over him last year, and I think he’s careful enough with the ball to let his offense win the field position battle and let the home crowd mess with the opponent’s offense. I think the ‘Cuse will do all they can to stop the run and make Rettig beat them, which I don’t think he can. Certainly don’t love Syracuse, but this number is too short considering where the game is being played and considering the health of BC’s best player entire offense.
Houston-Texas Tech OVER 69 (+100)
-The Cougs can't tackle and their offense is good enough to score on anyone, so I'll take the OVER because I made it lower. Lubbock's high winds are often an issue for opposing passing offenses, but even if TTU gets a big lead I don't think they can stop a Cougs passing offense that will try to come back and score a ton of points.
Kansas +24.5 (+100) vs. Mizzou
-This might be considered a chase on my ISU +11.5 loss last week that should've been a win. Two missed chipshots that if converted would have been enough to cash, but I'll take a boatload of points in a rivalry game where the Tigers are known to play down to their competition. KU's got plenty of problems, but I think they have an offense that can get into the endzone and it will take a lot of points for the Tigers to cover.

Week Twelve:
Virginia Tech -2.5 (-110) @ Miami
Not a believer in Miami’s coaching staff, and now that they’re missing Jacory Harris this weekend my fear of some big plays through the passing game has been quelled. VT’s corners are talented, and let’s not forget this is the hottest non-undefeated team going right now winning ten straight games after a tough start losing to a title contender and then being caught in a flat spot the same weekend. I don’t love Tyrod Taylor at all, but he can make some plays this weekend on the Miami defense and I think he’ll help his carousel of RBs find some holes when the stout Miami front-7 worries about bootlegs. David Wilson’s mono issue is a concern on returns, but the Evans-Williams combo should be prolific enough to lift VT to the Coastal title. Will take Bud Foster and Beamer’s special teams over Randy Shannon any day of the week.
Troy +21.5 (-115) @ South Carolina
-Awful situation for USC and my future with them getting more votes than Oklahoma State because they are set up for a flat spot. They won the SEC East for the first time in forever last week, and they have in-state rival Clemson next week so the hangover and look-ahead factors are in full-effect. Troy can throw the ball all over the yard, which has been an issue for the Cocks all season long. They lead the SEC in sacks, but also have the most porous passing defense so if they don't get to the QB they struggle covering guys. With DB Chris Culliver out for the season, they've had to put guys in new places and I think that can be exploited by a Troy team that bases their offense on throwing the rock. As for the Troy defense, they've been horrible against the run and USC should take advantage of this. I expect Marcus Lattimore to get a lot of rest this weekend after carrying the ball 40+ times in the Swamp, and it is senior day so 2nd string RB Brian Maddox should see some more action then normal. If Troy gets to 21 I think they cover this line, but I'm just hoping for a 14 or 17 point win so I don't have to sweat and SCary escapes with a win.
Army +8.5 vs. Notre Dame
-I really like this Army team as they really impressed me even when they lost ATS against Temple about a month ago. I think their offense is much better than it has been in past years, and their defense, too. The way to beat Army by more than a possession is to overpower their defense running the ball, and I don't think Notre Dame can do that without Armando Allen. Their QB situation is less than ideal with Crist out for the season, and I think their defense showed they struggle against option teams when they got blown out by Navy earlier this season (I grabbed the +6). Also, this is a tough spot for Notre Dame after the huge upset against Utah last week probably making the Irish think they're better than they truly are.
Iowa State +11.5 vs. Missouri
-I was originally planning to take a stand on this game with the Cyclones as I made them a small favorite until last week when they lost long-time starting QB Austen Arnaud for the season. I saw the 'Clones beat my 'Horns in Austin about a month ago, and I was very impressed by Paul Rhoads. He is a master motivator and this is ISU's last chance to get bowl eligible so you know they're gunning for this game. Missouri has been bad on the road this season, as Pinkel's teams have in his entire career, and I think this is too many points. Tiller needs to take care of the ball, and I'd be lying if I didn't tell you he worries me, but they have a great safety valve in RB Alexander Robinson. The team is fighting for their coach and a bowl bid, so I think we see quite an effort from ISU tonight.
Nebraska-Texas A&M UNDER 23 (-105, 2H)
-Feel like a square, but this number is based on people with the full game under and the bookmakers don't want too big of a gap for people to middle. I just don't see this game scoring this many in the entire game, let alone a half, unless it goes to overtime. Even then, I think defense will win out considering all the skill players with injuries here on both sides (Martinez & Nwachukwu) of the stadium.

Week Eleven:
Arizona -5.5 (-110) vs. Southern Cal
Baylor +3 (-115) vs. Texas A&M
Tennessee ML (-110) vs. Mississippi
South Carolina ML (+230) @ Florida
-Gonna grab this right before kick so I'm posting without the number now that it's in now. To keep it simple, UF can't take advantage of USC's weaknesses on defense and I think the Cocks win the SEC East

Week Ten:
Wazzu +14.5 (-110) vs. Cal
-don't want to miss the hook. This is what I made the line pre-Riley and I doubt he's playing with a torn mcl so that leaves a bad road team one dimensional if he is the best they got. Time for wazzu to win a pac10 game
Kansas +9 (-110) vs. Colorado
A tad concerned with the JuCo QB starting his second game for KU, but I just don't think Colorado should be this big of a road favorite with Cody Hawkins starting. This line smells being this big, but I have to take the points at home with a definite backdoor opportunity considering CU's defense. Just hope the KU defense works to slow down Rodney Stewart, and if that happens I think I'll be in great shape.
Illinois ML (+135) @ Michigan
-Took this early to avoid a tout moving this line the wrong way, but I'm taking the far better defense here. The Illini have far surpassed my original expectations, which concerns me because I don't like jumping off my pre-season thoughts, but I think Scheelhaase has come along way more than what I expected. Their defense has improved immensely, and I think they are a much better team that shouldn't be getting nearly 3/2 odds. The Big House HFA is not much to write home about, and it won't matter much with how poor the UM defense is. I think the Illini's losses have all been much closer than the final scores indicated, and they win this game pushing the nail further into Rich Rod's coffin.
Iowa State +18 (+103) vs. Nebraska
-Think this line is too high, although at open I was hoping for 21. I'm a tad concerned with how the 'Clones struggle stopping the run, but I am not sold on Nebraska. This should be an emotional game for the 'Huskers after the nine turnovers last season costing them a win, but Nebraska hasn't been good lately in big games. The loss at home to Texas was the Pelini team feeling like they needed to win, and I think this game will have a little extra on it because of last year. Nebraska's inability to put away Mizzou early last week makes me think ISU can hang around even if they have a bad start. Paul Rhoads made a huge impression to me after the game last year, and he did a lot of chemistry-building things when I watched ISU first-hand in Austin so I think this team will fight for him and that is important. I just like an experienced QB matched with a talented RB and a good coach that just needs to make this a ballgame. May buy out depending on how it moves, though...
Texas Christian-Utah UNDER 51 (-109)
Huge game with huge implications makes me think both teams will be very conservative with their playcalling. I'm not sure Utah can do much offensively against this TCU team, and they're sure to be more sound on special teams after some mishaps in last year's game that HC Kyle Whittingham already touched on in an interview this morning. I'm also not as impressed with TCU QB Andy Dalton this season, but in reality I'm just hoping for a low-scoring battle with plenty of punts and field position being the most important aspect. TCU should win this game, but the HFA in Salt Lake City is huge and I'm much more comfortable with the under than with Utah and the points.

10/16/10: Iowa St-Texas DKR Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Week Nine:
South Carolina -4.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee (GOTY)
-Pre-season I felt USC would win a lot of games, while Tennessee would struggle to be bowl eligible so I jumped this one and love the 13 point advantage I have right now. Tempted to middle, but I don't want to lose the value of a great decision.
Oregon State -2.5 (-110) vs. California
-I was hoping to get this at 3, so I jumped on the 2.5 although it smells like a trap. The Beavers are notorious for bad starts to the season, but they usually turn it on late. Meanwhile, Cal really struggles when they hit the road and they are a one dimensional offense because Kevin Riley has never been a good passer. Cal RB Shane Vereen is probably my favorite player in college right now, but the Beavers know stopping him is the key to winning the game. Oregon State has a good home field advantage so seeing this line scares me because it's screaming that Cal would be favored on a neutral field. I don't agree there, and coming off a bye week I think Mike Riley will have his team focused and ready. Should be low-scoring, but I'll take the home team when all I need is a field goal victory.
West Virginia -6.5 (-108) @ Connecticut
-UConn is a mess right now with QB Cody Endres getting kicked off the team for his third positive drug test, and they have NEVER been able to shut down the West Virginia offense. While the 'Neers don't run the ball as well as they used to, their defense is stout. I think UConn will struggle to score, especially after getting shutout last week by Louisville when their future QB Michael Box got knocked out of the game with a concussion. I'm not afraid of Zach Frazer, and I think the UConn rush defense is inferior to what it normally is. Couple the poor rush D with their usual bad secondary and I think WVU QB Geno Smith can move the ball even with a banged up Noel Devine. The loss last week to Syracuse should mean we get a hungry visiting team and I don't think UConn's home crowd will make much of a difference.
Clemson -6.5 (-120) @ Boston College
-After attending the BC-VT game, I learned that if BC can't run they can't do much on offense. The crowd isn't intimidating at all, especially now that they've lost a ton of hope after dropping every big game so far at home this year, and Clemson is used to noise. I think the Tigers will stop Montel Harris and force Rettig to beat them, which he can't do. I will need Kyle Parker's receivers to catch the ball, which they haven't been able to do this season, but I honestly think 14 points is enough to cash this ticket. Andre Ellington should get loose at least once on Saturday and hopefully that will result in a quick score.
Mississippi +7 (-112) vs. Auburn
Oregon -6.5 (-108) @ USC
-Trojans can't tackle and I'm not intimidated by their HFA. I thought preseason that this would be an Oregon loss but not so much anymore. I also think Oregons defense has the talent to stop Usc on a backdoor attempt, but the fact that USC doesn't do tackling drills in practice means they will struggle to stop Oregon's offense and I'm not sure they can keep up.

Week Eight:
Iowa -5.5 (-110) vs. Wisconsin
-Love the Hawks this year, have thought they were 1a to Ohio State's 1 pre-season, and now I think they're the best team.
-Great DL which allows their defense to sit back and that means small areas to throw the ball in without the blitz. Stud safeties to sit back and watch with their experience and a monster on the line in Adrian Clayborn.
-Offensively they run the ball a ton and have a veteran QB. He liked to throw pick6's before in his career, but he's got great WRs, Iowa always has a great TE and I like the OL background from Ferentz.
-This game comes down to if Wisconsin can react to winning a game they really haven't ever won under Bielema, so I think it'll be really hard for him to get ready. Meanwhile, Iowa got to rest their players against Michigan with the 28-7 lead. It hurt them because they got nervous late, but they are solid all around and have the home crowd behind them. I would favor Wisconsin on the OL and at RB with Jewel Hampton's season-ending injury, but I would favor Iowa at coaching, QB, WR, TE, DL, LB and DB. Having the home crowd and so many clear advantages made me look for anything below 7, and I think a win here could cement my future at least with a push as they only have two losable games left (Sparty & tOSU).
Navy +6 (-110) vs. Notre Dame
I'm not high on notre dame and I think this is a huge game for the naval academy, one they circle on the schedule every year. Don't think nd can stop the navy offense and I like navys chances to stop notre dame. Think this is a very close game and i didn't want to risk losing the 6, but I screwed that up cuz I coulda had 7...
Rutgers-Pittsburgh UNDER 43 (-110)
Houston-SMU OVER 63 (-110)
Louisiana State ML (+205) @ Auburn
-auburn fortunate to win last week with two game changing calls going their way and neither should have
-Tough games three weeks in a row as they didnt get to rest any of the past two weeks like lsu did with mcneese no matter the score
-Auburns defense is banged up badly at lb and ridley will exploit that
-Awful defense can make lsu look good on o, and I think its underrated
-Size and speed on lsu defense will limit what camputer usually exploits
-PP7 should eliminate Adams as a deep threat
-hitting the road sucks but at least they won't boo the home team when miles does something idiotic
-I think chizik is stupid

Week Seven:
Texas AM -1.5 (-110) vs. Mizzou
Texas Tech -1 (-110) vs. Oklahoma State
Auburn -2.5 (-110) vs. Arkansas
Iowa -3.5 (-105) @ Michigan
The Hawks DL is so talented that they may not have to blitz tonight. That will cut down on throwing lanes for Denard Robinson, who isn't a proven passer even with those open lanes. Shoelace is certainly talented, but this is the worst possible match-up for him and the Wolverines because of the talent on the defensive side of the ball. Iowa's offense should be able to do whatever it wants with the Michigan D, as they haven't been able to stop anyone this season, and I think it will be very difficult for UM to play catch-up even with the home crowd.
Ohio State -4 (-105) @ Wisconsin

Week Six:
Washington -1 (-110) vs. Arizona State
Arkansas -7 (-110) vs. Texas A&M
Mississippi State -2.5 (-110) @ Houston
Middle Tennessee State -3 (-110) vs. Troy
It's time for the Raiders to take the SBC crown. They have the national audience and a blue out, but the most important thing is their star Dwight Dasher returning. Some may say he will be rusty, but he was running with the first team up until the week before the season started. I think he takes advantage of a poor Trojan defense and the home team grabs a stranglehold on top of the SBC. Bigger OL, better defense and much more experienced QB on a team that wants this one and has a home crowd behind them.
Army +1 (-108) @ Tulane
Great time to sell Tulane after the big win last week @Rutgers. Meanwhile, I was against the Cadets who really impressed me. I think that offense is gonna be tough to prepare for after the Green Wave surely think they're the sh** after the big win in Piscataway last week. Army should struggle against teams with big OL who actually commit to running the ball, but I'm not sure Tulane fits as that kind of team. They seem to have a big OL that should overwhelm the Army DL, but everyone does. The offense needs to keep the defense off the field, and I think they can do that in the dome.
Nebraska-Kansas State UNDER 49 (-116)
Was waiting for it to hit 52, then i saw 50 and decided to wait until I saw 49.5 but I missed that too. Went to a meeting at work and came out and the total had dropped from 50 to 48 and then I saw it going to 47.5, but there's still a chunk available at 49 on Matchbook at the juice I have. I made this 38.5, but clearly that was low. I just think Nebraska wins this one handily as they will stop the Wildcats run and I just hope they don't get up huge and then give up some late scores. The weeknight trend should help the dog at least remain competitive, and Snyder should have his defense ready. I expect a whole lot of conservative in this one, and that generally benefits an under.
Alabama -6.5 (2H, +106) @ South Carolina
Bama was playing very well and would be in the game if not for some turnovers and poor special teams play, which is very odd. Don't think USC can run the ball well enough to take the time off the clock, and Bama doesn't have to win. I can see a 5 point game at the end with Bama trying a pass to the endzone from the 25 as time expires. They won't be playing for field goals as that wouldn't reduce the deficit to a one-score game, and it's sort of a hedge on my season bet on South Carolina.
Miami FL -5.5 (+102) vs. Florida State
Waited to make sure the weather would be clear, and it is. Better team here laying under a touchdown at home. I haven't bought FSU this year, well except for when they hosted BYU, and I'm not going to buy that pass defense now. Think they'll struggle running and Jacory will do the damn thing at home. Hate to be against people I respect like CK, but sometimes you gotta do it...

Week Five:
BC +1.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame
-Made this line 4.5 prior to this weekend's games, and I was looking to play it up to -4, but both teams are off bad efforts and being in the house for BC made it clear that they need to run the ball to win. I think they can do that on the Irish, and their defense is good enough to hold ND to field goals. I also can't underestimate the rivalry here considering how BC should feel slighted by Notre Dame trying to keep them from matching up until the struck a deal to continue playing. This was the hottest ticket of the BC season, and I think we'll get their best effort after the shutout.
Iowa -6.5 (-110) vs. Penn State
-I have a future on Iowa so I've been trying to avoid them as much as possible, but I can't avoid this spot. I almost played it pre-season when I saw -3, but anything below a touchdown is fine with me. I actually would have considered playing it at 9.5, but seeing this number at the open is fine with me. PSU's defense is nothing like it usually is considering youth and a lack of talent, plus their o-line is average and their quarterback is a freshman who performed poorly in the only other big game he's been a part of @Alabama.
UGA -2.5 (-110) @ Colorado
-This is a joke of a line. Georgia has struggled recently against SEC teams starting 0-3, but those aren't the bottom feeders in the Big Twelve North. If the Dawgs can't cover here then Richt deserves to be fired.
Navy +11 (-110) @ Air Force
-This should be closer to a FG than 2 touchdowns. Both teams run the same offense and there's a considerable rivalry factor here. Navy has held the Commander-in-Chief trophy for 7 straight years, and that's mainly because they're better at their game than the other two schools. These teams are mirror images of each other, and while HFA has to be factored into the line I'm not sure that and altitude can combine for seven points. I was hoping to play Navy at 4.5, and got almost a full score from that number so of course I'm in.
Stanford +5.5 (-110) @ Oregon
-Hate backing a team after they beat me the week before, but the Cardinal answered a lot of questions that I had. They are playing great football, and they seem to be able to make up for missing Toby Gerhart by simply converting every 3rd down when they need to. Andrew Luck is the best QB in the nation, which I've thought since the end of last season, and I really think their defense has improved leaps and bounds from last season. Meanwhile, Oregon looked awful against Arizona State last week winning by only 11 points despite numerous gift touchdowns and turnovers. You could argue they were looking past ASU to Stanford at home, but I think it's more of a statement about how UO isn't as good as their current ranking. Their defense is great, which I think Andrew Luck can neutralize, and this game will come down to the Stanford defense and how the Cardinal handles the Autzen noise. I think they'll pass the test.
Temple -3 (-110) @ Army
-Missing Pierce is a concern here, as he is their best player, but I don't know how Army can stop the Owls rushing attack. I like what Al Golden has done with the program, and I think they're talented enough on defense to win the field position game enough to give them a comfortable victory at West Point.
Texas-Oklahoma UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Florida-Alabama UNDER 48 (-110)

Week Four:
BYU +3.5 vs. Nevada
Notre Dame +3.5 vs. Stanford
Kansas State -5 vs. Central Florida
North Carolina ML (-110) @ Rutgers
Suspensions or no suspensions, RU is going to need to throw to score points against the 'Heels and I will play the suspended road team because I don't think they can do it. Believe it or not, I actually think Yates can bring this team back, and there's no chance they're looking past this game as they need a W.
West Virginia +10 (-118) @ LSU
-Fishy line but I'll take 10 to ride with WVU's defense
West Virginia-LSU UNDER 44 (-105)
Two great defenses and the favorite may have a lot of trouble scoring. I don't like having two bets on a game, but why not try my luck on a correlation.
California +6 (-103) @ Arizona
Can't see UA's crowd being like it was last week, and I'm sensing a bit of a let-down while Jahvid Best's replacement Shane Vareen may be the best RB you haven't heard much about. Think Cal responds to the blowout loss to Nevada last week, too.

Week Three:

VT-BC 9/25/10 at Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA

Florida State -6.5 (-110) vs. BYU
Georgia -2 (-110) vs. Arkansas
NC State +2 (-110) vs. Cincinnati
Connecticut-Temple UNDER 46.5 (-110)
-Some at 47, but 3/4 here so I'll post 46.5
Akron-Kentucky UNDER 50 (-110)
-Made this much lower, and I think an SEC defense will stifle the Zips worse than Syracuse did.

Week Two:
Alabama -10 (-110) vs. Penn State
Played Bama on the open, basically think Penn State has no chance bringing a true freshman to T-Town trying to match up with Saban's athletes
Georgia-South Carolina UNDER 49.5 (-110)
Two teams that will be running the ball a ton, especially UGA trying to hide their new quarterback.
Brigham Young-Air Force UNDER 48 (-110)
More running teams, this time one that will do it all game long and then BYU with a two-quarterback system should make it tough to score quick points. I also think BYU is great on the lines and this should be a great game filled with field position football.
Baylor-Buffalo OVER 50 (-110)
Had this at 56 when I made my line, and I like that Buffalo has switched to the spread offense with the addition of Brian Kelly's OC from Cincy. Robert Griffin should have a nice game with the lack of speed from UB, and I think Baylor's defense can be manipulated.
Duke +3 (-108, 2H) @ Wake Forest

Week One:
Cincinnati-Fresno State OVER 57.5 (-110)
Butch Jones' teams never played defense at CMU and he's inheriting a bad defense. I worry about Fresno State being able to keep up, but I think there's a lot of good about the Cincy offense and not much on either defense.
Northwestern-Vanderbilt UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Vandy has suspended their two starting tackles and they brought in a new OL coach whose employment history included Tulsa and West Virginia. I don't think the spread option is going to be good for this Vandy team, while they do have SEC caliber athletes on defense. Meanwhile, NW has a running QB who must now prepare to throw the ball to keep defenses honest and I don't think Persa has the ability nor does his OL have the talent to block for their running game.
Ucla-Kansas State UNDER 44 (-110)
Both teams are going to struggle throwing the ball, so I'd expect a ton of running to whittle down the clock. KSU will pound the ball to hide their QB, and I think Neuheisel knows his team can win this one if they don't make the terrible mistakes. Ucla had a suspension rob them of a tackle here, too, which will hurt them on the LOS.
SMU +13 (-110) @ Texas Tech
Sprinkled some ML in here at +390, but because it was such a small amount I'm going to count the spread and then subrtract the loss if they cover but don't win SU. I just like getting this number of points from a talented offense playing a team that's going through a ton of changes.
Boise State-Virginia Tech UNDER 52.5 (-110)
Obviously rooting for the Broncos for one of my season wagers, but I think this game will see a ton of running and the Broncos play low-scoring games when they play in their "BCS Buster" games. The clock will move and I think both teams will try to limit the big plays. Fear some special teams points, but I have 7 touchdowns and a field goal thanks to the Labor Day chasers...