Welcome to GWarner's blog

+8.933

Dogs: 7-4 +3.44
Favorites: 7-3 +5.068
Over: 4-2 +1.80
Under: 9-12-1 -4.148
Halftimes: 3-0 +2.773

2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657

Sunday: 2-1 +0.94

-Got back on track and could have had a HUGE day if SLU could have stayed in the game before folding late to lose by 12 and miss my number by 1 1/2 points. UNLV ML won despite making me nervous after they blew a 20-point lead and I feel good about my totals as I went 3-0 and none were very close.

2008-09 TEX wagers: 7-1 +5.848
2009-10 TEX wagers: 3-0 +3.02

...still looking for insight on teams with pace changes due to new systems or players graduating as I have a little bit of a list going.

Variations tracking: 13-14-1 -2.348
-19.0: 1-0 +1.00
-9.0: 1-1 -0.10
-8.5: 1-0 +1.00
-7.0: 1-0 +1.00
-6.0: 0-1 -1.10
+4.0: 0-1 -0.998
+5.5: 0-1-1 -1.10
+6.0: 1-0 +1.00
+6.5: 0-2 -2.20
+7.5: 1-1 -0.10
+8.0: 0-1 -1.10
+8.5: 2-2 -0.20
+9.0: 2-1 +0.90
+10.0: 0-1 -1.10
+11.0: 1-1 -0.10
+13.5: 1-0 +1.00
+16.0: 0-1 -1.10
+17.5: 1-0 +1.00

adding:
Providence ML (+130) @ Northeastern: 0.87/1.031 (Matchbook)
I realize Matt Janning is a great player, but PC is a better team even with their poor showing at home against BC this weekend. If PC can shoot the ball like they normally do, I don't know how NE can keep up. Also seeing a +130 price on a 2/2.5-point dog is quite favorable.

Wake Forest +11 (-110) @ Purdue: 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
Purdue is going to be good this year, but I don't see them blowing out an athletic WF team. The Deacs are very experienced in almost all the key positions, but I can see this line being too high because of the losses of James Johnson and Jeff Teague. Ish Smith should transition well to the point, and Dino Gaudio still has Chas McFarland on the interior to match-up with JaJuan Johnson. Also, don't underestimate L.D. Williams' affect on the game with his defense on Robbie Hummel unless we see Aminu playing him, which is okay, too.

Michigan State-North Carolina UNDER 153.5 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
It came out at 162 supposedly, but I tried to lock in 155 and it moved to 153.5 before I finally got it. I'll take the 10.5-point variation, though, on a UNC team that doesn't have the offensive ability to play like they did last year. I doubt they'll get anywhere near the 1.24 points/possession they had last year, and I think that will be great for the totals for at least a little while.

San Francisco-Colorado OVER 145 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
I was looking for 148, and I'll take the extra 3 points. CU has played at a much faster pace than they did in recent seasons and I think that's Bzdelik trying to hide his small team. They have some good athleticism and they take quick shots, which they can sometimes hit at a very high percentage before the defense sets up. Bzdelik missed a boatload in Maui due to his mother's illness, but I don't expect him to immediately slow the pace when he saw how everything went against better teams than USF. I think the Dons high tempo and their inability to play defense will help this along if they can stay competitive.

Virginia Tech -2.5 (-110) @ Iowa: 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
Iowa is shit and Jeff Allen should have a big game for the Hokies because his size in side should have a big advantage over the Hawkeyes. Just don't see the Hawks guards doing anything to Malcolm Delaney, either.

current card:
Providence ML (+130) @ Northeastern: 0.87/1.031
Wake Forest +11 (-110) @ Purdue: 1.1/1
San Francisco-Colorado OVER 145 (-110): 1.1/1
Michigan State-North Carolina UNDER 153.5 (-110): 1.1/1
Virginia Tech -2.5 (-110) @ Iowa: 1.1/1

good luck