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| 10/17 Ravens-Patriots at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA |
Faves 9-8 +0.35
Dogs 6-12 -6.672
Over 0-0 +0.00
Under 0-2-1 -2.15
2nd Half 3-2 +0.75
Props 1-0 +1.00
2007-08: 34-36-3 48.6% -4.211
2008-09: 25-39-1 39.1% -19.329
2009-10: 8-9 47.1% -0.576
Futures:
Baltimore to win Super Bowl (+1950)
Super Bowl:
Rashard Mendenhall score a TD: Yes (-145)
-Think he's going to get the ball a lot even though they won't have much success running, and he gets it a ton in the redzone.
Green Bay OVER 22.5 completions (-155)
-The Packers will give up on the run after seeing it doesn't work early in the game, and they will throw all night indoors. I don't even mind if Rodgers gets hurt because Flynn can pick the secondary apart, too.
Championship Weekend:
New York Jets +4 (-110) @ Pittsburgh
New York-Pittsburgh UNDER 38 (-108)
Divisional Round:
Baltimore +3.5 (-115) @ Pittsburgh
-I said I’m riding Baltimore until they win the Super Bowl or get eliminated, and that’s what I’m doing. Baltimore should have swept the season series and had this game at home, but the late fumble forced by a great play from Troy Polamalu kept that from happening. It cost me a little over a unit in that game, but it gave me a much better price on them to win the Super Bowl (almost 20-1) and gave me an extra game to take the Ravens (last weekend) so maybe it’s a great thing. Both teams have unbelievable defenses, probably an advantage to the Pittsburgh secondary and washes in the LBs and on the D-line, but I think the offensive side of the ball will be the difference. Big Ben has won plenty in his career obviously with the Super Bowl wins, but I think Flacco is catching up to him and the young guy has a much better offensive line. I prefer the Ravens RBs, WRs and Todd Heap to anyone the Steelers put out there, and they have the better kicking game. HFA will be huge in the ‘Burgh, but I’m hoping the Ravens are the one who gets the big turnover that swings this game.
New York +9 (-105) @ New England
-Simply put, this is going to be a close game. I think the Jets can run on the Pats and they will be hoping to stay close by keeping Sanchez from making tough decisions. If the Pats get up early this one will be over, but I don't think they will.
Wes Welker receptions -1 (-120) vs. Santonio Holmes
-The individual props have Welker at o/u 6 and Holmes at o/u 4.5, plus I think Welker will be a safety valve today while the Jets are going to run and run and run to keep the ball out of Mark Sanchez's hands.
-Simply put, this is going to be a close game. I think the Jets can run on the Pats and they will be hoping to stay close by keeping Sanchez from making tough decisions. If the Pats get up early this one will be over, but I don't think they will.
Wes Welker receptions -1 (-120) vs. Santonio Holmes
-The individual props have Welker at o/u 6 and Holmes at o/u 4.5, plus I think Welker will be a safety valve today while the Jets are going to run and run and run to keep the ball out of Mark Sanchez's hands.
Wildcard Weekend:
Seattle +10 (-109) vs. New Orleans
-Hate the NFC West this year as that's where I've lost most of my money, but the Saints are so banged up that this number will be hard to cover. I hate the Seahawks inability to stop the run, but Julius Jones doesn't worry me and Drew Brees has been playing terribly recently. I like the move to Hasselbeck cuz he can make his own offense unlike Whitehurst, and having Charlie back there in case Matt's back acts up is a good thing. The Seahawks' special teams is awesome at home and their HFA has such an effect on opposing OLs. This is a ton to cover when all the Saints want to advance, and they really are limping in at this point. Need an early score from Seattle to allow them to start milking the clock, and I think that can happen on a kickoff or on a lackadaisical play by Brees when he tries to do everything himself. I also think everyone and their brother is on NO...
Baltimore -2.5 (-110) @ Kansas City
-I have Baltimore to win the Super Bowl and my plan since Week 13 was to ride them whenever they've been reasonably-priced. Since then I have won twice (@Houston & vs. NO) and had a tough luck loss against Pittsburgh, but this Ravens team has competed with everyone and I think they can weather the Arrowhead storm. The atmosphere is going to be crazy, but the Ravens can stop the Chiefs rushing attack and they will be able to move the ball on the defense. Hoping for a Jets win in Indy so the Ravens can go knock the Steelers out before maybe hosting an AFC championship.
Week Seventeen:
Detroit -3.5 (-105) vs. Minnesota
-Short week for Minnesota and we see Megatron active so I'll take the better team that is more rested and desperate to end the season on a good note.
Tampa Bay +4 (-105, 2H) @ New Orleans
-I think we see Sean Payton resting starters in the 2H because he'll realize ATL isn't losing. Even if he doesn't, I think the Bucs have a good chance to win this game because the Saints don't look sharp with all these turnovers in plus-territory.
St. Louis -3 (-115, 2H) @ Seattle
-Got what I hoped for as I didn't want to lay the 4 pre-game, but I think the Rams are the better team and one big blown coverage cost them the lead going into halftime. St. Louis is going to commit to the run game, and I prefer Sam Bradford to Charlie Whitehurst. I've been all over the Rams this year, and that's partly a problem in my record being poor, but here's a chance for them to bail me out and get to the playoffs. I like that they can lose by 1 and I can get a push, too.
Week Sixteen:
Carolina +14 (-105) @ Pittsburgh
-I'm just not convinced that the Steelers can beat anyone who wants to play by this much considering the state of their offensive line. Carolina ain't pretty, but their defense isn't the problem and with no Polamalu or at least a limited #43 I think we see a tighter game than expected.
Oakland ML (+100) vs. Indianapolis
-Second straight week fading Indy against a good rush offense, this time I'm confident in the Raiders winning because Peyton is finally out of the dome. The onside kick return TD was a joke last week, but that's how my season has gone unfortunately...
Week Fifteen:
St. Louis -1 (-110) vs. Kansas City
-I’ve been high on the Rams for a while, and I will continue to be even after Bradford’s pick 6 cost me a cover last week. I don’t think Matt Cassel is very good, so with the recent appendectomy I’m not sure he can even throw the ball down the field. That is going to be a problem against a defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo because Coach Spags is great at getting pressure on the QB. If it’s Brodie Croyle, this game won’t be close, but even if Cassel miraculously starts I think KC will seriously struggle to score. They’re going to be playing nervous knowing they need to win to stay ahead of the Chargers and that’s not a good thing when the other team wants to win the Battle of Missouri. The crowd should be similar to a college atmosphere, and I get the home team without the QB drama basically at a pick. I’m in.
Baltimore -2 (-107) vs. New Orleans
-I think the Ravens are going to win the Super Bowl, so I've decided to back them whenever I think they just need to win a game. If I'm going to be right in the end, they're going to have to be able to beat a Saints team that struggles away from home, and is without their bruising RB Chris Ivory. Just gotta hope they can contain Drew Brees.
Jacksonville +4.5 (-106) @ Indianapolis
-Perfect play for a matchup handicapper like I'm trying to become. Great rush offense getting points from an awful rush defense with a division crown on the line. Hate to fade Peyton, but he hasn't been himself this season and I'll play the hotter team.
Green Bay-New England UNDER 43.5 (-107)
-GB's defense will bring it tonight and I think this will be close. If NE covers I think there's a good chance it stays under.
Green Bay +10 (-110, 2H) @ New England
-Should have done this from the beginning, but I think GB can win this game and I have them +7 for the game. They get the ball first and I think they'll work on the clock and hopefully they can hold on and we see a ton of field goals so I can somehow win my under as well.
Baltimore -2 (-107) vs. New Orleans
-I think the Ravens are going to win the Super Bowl, so I've decided to back them whenever I think they just need to win a game. If I'm going to be right in the end, they're going to have to be able to beat a Saints team that struggles away from home, and is without their bruising RB Chris Ivory. Just gotta hope they can contain Drew Brees.
Jacksonville +4.5 (-106) @ Indianapolis
-Perfect play for a matchup handicapper like I'm trying to become. Great rush offense getting points from an awful rush defense with a division crown on the line. Hate to fade Peyton, but he hasn't been himself this season and I'll play the hotter team.
Green Bay-New England UNDER 43.5 (-107)
-GB's defense will bring it tonight and I think this will be close. If NE covers I think there's a good chance it stays under.
Green Bay +10 (-110, 2H) @ New England
-Should have done this from the beginning, but I think GB can win this game and I have them +7 for the game. They get the ball first and I think they'll work on the clock and hopefully they can hold on and we see a ton of field goals so I can somehow win my under as well.
Week Fourteen:
New York -4.5 (-107) vs. Miami
-Hate the short week, but the Jets were embarrassed and everyone saw it so get ready for them to come out and annihilate the Dolphins who probably aren't enjoying the cold right now.
St. Louis +9.5 (-106) @ New Orleans
-Rams pass rush is too good for the Saints to lay this kind of number especially considering how efficient the Rams are with the football.
New England-Chicago UNDER 17 (2H, -120)
-Tough to kick here and I don't think the Pats want to run up the score against an NFC team. Lots of running and the weather will muck this all up.
Baltimore -2.5 (-115) @ Houston
-Gonna keep riding the Ravens as I think they're the best team in football right now. Took me a while to get there, but pre-season I was actually doubting their defense and now that's the opposite. Flacco is playing better than anyone in the AFC except Brady and Rivers right now, and this team should have beaten Pittsburgh last week. May look for a future on them while I'm at it, but even if they trail late Baltimore can march down the field against the Houston secondary and I don't think Houston will be able to run the ball at all.
Week Thirteen:
Philadelphia -8 (-107) vs. Houston
-Hate to lay this much in the NFL, but the Eagles are in the perfect spot. We should see a raucous environment tonight from the Philly faithful, and the matchup on the gridiron sets up perfectly. Philly can’t run, which is Houston’s strength on defense. Meanwhile the Eagles are strong in the passing game, which is Houston’s greatest weakness. On the other side of the ball, Philly is great at stopping the run and Houston has been relying on Arian Foster to get their offense started recently. When Foster struggles tonight, that will put a lot of pressure on a banged up passing game to make some plays. I’m not buying it as Matt Schaub has looked bad this season and I’m convinced Andre Johnson would have been better served sitting out a few weeks to let his ankle heel instead of playing on it like he has. Again, I hate laying more than a touchdown, but I think this line is this high to get Houston money and the number won’t come into play.
Baltimore -3 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh
-Grabbed this earlier in the week, basically think Baltimore is better across the board and they can exploit the banged up Steelers OL. Flacco has been very good lately, and I can't say the same about Roethlisbathroomassault. Expect this to jump as people lose their ass on the impossible league that takes place every Sunday in the fall and winter before jumping on the SNF favorite. Need a few good runs from the Ravens stable of backs, of which all I think are solid, and we'll be good.
Baltimore -3 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh
-Grabbed this earlier in the week, basically think Baltimore is better across the board and they can exploit the banged up Steelers OL. Flacco has been very good lately, and I can't say the same about Roethlisbathroomassault. Expect this to jump as people lose their ass on the impossible league that takes place every Sunday in the fall and winter before jumping on the SNF favorite. Need a few good runs from the Ravens stable of backs, of which all I think are solid, and we'll be good.
Week Twelve:
Seattle ML (+114) vs. Kansas City
-Battle of two great home teams and therefore I'll take the home team. C'mon 12th man!
Week Eleven:
Cleveland ML (+125) @ Jacksonville
-This line tells it all when a 3-7 team goes on the road to a 6-4 team and is favored by less than a TD. Jacksonville is an under-the-radar playoff contender at this point, but they're going to struggle stopping Peyton Hillis on the ground and their secondary should give Colt McCoy some opportunities through the air. The Browns stop the run with the best of them, and that will force David Garrard to beat them with a ball-hawking secondary where I don't like his chances.
New York +3.5 (-105) @ Philadelphia
-Short week for Philly and the Giants were embarrassed by a division foe. Think we see a great performance from NYG and their pass rush gets to Vick once they realize they can't run the ball conventionally.
Denver +9 (-106) @ San Diego
Week Ten:
St. Louis ML (+193) @ San Francisco
-Better D, better coach, better QB and the only clear negative is where this game is being played. Don't like the wind in SF for FGs, so I think this will be won with offense and defense and I think StL has the advantage in this game. This is a huge game for the NFC West as it would pretty much eliminate the 'Niners from contention, but I just see the Rams as a much better team that should be favored here so I'll take the ML instead of messing with the points. Hope it doesn't kill me like it did with the Bills last week...
New England +5 (-108) @ Pittsburgh
Don't love the Pats, but I'm interested in fading teams off of Monday Night games with the short week and that coincides with Bellichick coming off a loss where his record is very good. Think the Pats are a live dog that could win this straight up, but I don't think the Steelers are a fraud so I'll take the points.
Week Nine:
Buffalo ML (+143) vs. Chicago
-Think this is the best chance for the Bills to prevent going winless this season, and they've been keeping it close against much better teams this year. The Bears have a great run defense, but I don't think the Bills are too concerned with that considering how well Steve Johnson and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played this season. I'm no Lovie Smith fan, and I think betting on Cutler is just asking for disastrous results. Not sure what to make of the game being in Toronto, but I'll take the dog from the far superior conference to stay competitive and pull one out late.
Kansas City ML (-105) @ Oakland
-Raiders struggle stopping the run, which is KC's strength. Also think the Chiefs defense is made to slow down teams like Oakland who really don't have a threat passing, and I think Dwayne Bowe will have a big day with Nnamdi Asomugha either OUT or severely limited by his sprained ankle. Hate road teams in any sport, but the HFA in the NFL isn't important in my opinion.
Week Eight:
St. Louis -2 (-104) vs. Carolina
-I'll be a square, but this line should be closer to a touchdown. Love the improvements on the Rams defense, and the home team should be angry about blowing last week's win in Tampa while the visitors are content that they won't finish 0-16.
Week Seven:
Cleveland +13 (-115) @ New Orleans
-Love this Browns defense and I think the line is inflated after last week's blowout. Hope Payton Hillis can get some big runs to take pressure of my boy McCoy
Minnesota ML (+130) @ Green Bay
-GB is too banged up and this is where the Vikes season takes off. Inability to run will really hurt the Pack here
Week Six:
Cleveland-Pittsburgh UNDER 38 (-110)
Watched every start of Colt McCoy's career at UT, but never thought he'd have success as a pro. He was a great scrambler, which he can't be in the NFL, and I think the Steelers will tee off on him all day. Lots of conservative play-calling will headline the game, and I'm not sure Pittsburgh will want to lay the wood to a bad team in the division. Also expect Big Ben to be rusty, as he should be.
Tennessee -2.5 (-114) @ Jacksonville
-Not a believer in the Jacksonville HFA, and I think this is a game Tennessee needs to win to get into the playoffs.
Week Five:
Houston -3 (+106) vs. New York
Wanted to get this in before it's announced that Andre Johnson is playing, because I have some odd expectation that he will. Basically this bet was made because the Giants weakness is stopping the run, which Houston does fairly well. On the other side, Houston's weakness is stopping the pass, which New York has looked awful doing in recent weeks. While I did take the G-men in their last game, they were terrible and got lucky facing a disinterested Bears team. New York won't get lucky this week...
San Francisco -3 (-115) vs. Philadelphia
It's about time for the Niners to get a W, especially because they're not out of the race. They get a banged up Philly team at home with a quarterback who looked awful throwing in the wind. Candlestick is always windy, and the Niners should be able to keep this low scoring they just need to mix Gore with some good passing to keep ahead of the chains.
Week Four:
New York -3.5 (-105) vs. Chicago
Week Three:
Dallas ML (+120) @ Houston
One team's desperate while the other is in a new place sitting as the hunted instead of being the hunter. Think the Dallas defense will play well today, and the crowd should be nearly 50-50 so I don't think the HFA is that important.
Green Bay -1 (2h, -110) @ Chicago
The Pack dominated the first half and really got screwed by that awful kickoff from Mason Crosby. Expect them to pass a ton and the Bears won't be able to stop it.
Week Two:
Indianapolis -4 (-105) vs. New York
Can't ignore the QB advantage along with the home crowd, I also think this is a huge overreaction to week one. While some teams are better than I thought they were, I think the Giants were in a great place to succeed and the Colts walked into the lion's den in Houston last week. I don't like the Giants running game and I don't like their rush defense so I think we'll see quite a few points and hopefully the home team gets more than the visitors.
San Francisco +5 (+100) vs. New Orleans
Don't love the Niners here, but it's time for them to respond to a bad first week. I'll admit that I'm a doubter of the Saints, but I think we would have seen a great effort from SF on Monday Night Football and it will be light years better after the blowout loss last week. I think they'll be scoring 6s not kicking 3s when they get in the red zone tonight
Week One:
Atlanta -1 (-110) @ Pittsburgh
-Go ahead and beat me Dennis Dixon, I dare you.
New York -1 (-108) vs. Baltimore
