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| 1/4/10: Pittsburgh-Providence, Dunkin' Donuts Center, Providence, RI |
Dogs: 53-34-4 +18.915
Favorites: 37-31 +3.42
Over: 5-3 +1.70
Under: 4-2 +1.80
First Halfs: 6-1 +4.90
Halftimes: 6-4 +1.65
2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657
2009-10: 141-136-4 (50.9%) 1.294
Futures:
San Diego State to Win NCAA Championship (+3000)
Ohio State to win East (+135)
-Odds aren't great, actually lost quite a bit in the few hours I've been away from a computer, but the Buckeyes are the best team in the East by far. I think we see two huge upsets pulled by Xavier in the round of 32 and the round of 16, so I will take a tOSU-XU game in Newark to cash this future. Even if that doesn't happen, they've got to win three losable games for me to cash. They get to the 2nd round and play George Mason who is grossly outclassed, then a Kentucky team that is very thin on the interior and has limited depth. Syracuse would be a difficult matchup in Newark, but I really think they are the 3rd most likely team to be there after Xavier and UNC. The Bucks have two great post defenders in Sullinger and Lauderdale to match Zeller/Henson and Frease/McLean, while they also have the shooters to cripple the Orange's 2-3 zone.
Florida more wins than Notre Dame (+100)
-I had the Gators in my pre-season final four and have them winning the Southeast, while ND exits in the Sweet 16. To start from the beginning, UF has a tougher matchup with UCSB than the Irish have with Akron, but it's in Tampa. Tampa again for a Ucla/Sparty matchup, which they are better than their opponent in every category and the time zone will help UF when Ucla gets by MSU. Meanwhile, ND has a very tough matchup with FSU. The game being in a ND hub in Chicago helps, but FSU will tower over them and have a huge length advantage. I'm not picking it, but ND could go down right there. If ND advances, they play a really strong Purdue team who I have knocking them out. They can't match JaJuan Johnson. Meanwhile, UF should get a limited BYU team or if they get upset they play teams that are wounded or just not very good. I think we see a ridiculous top of the bracket where Florida faces a much lower seed and even if ND makes it here they'd have to play Kansas. Florida two rounds further makes this a bet at even money.
Xavier more wins than Georgetown (+120)
-I don't think Chris Wright is close to healthy, I actually think GTown is going to be eliminated in their first game. I really hope the USC/VCU game won't go into overtime, but even if it does I think we still see a GTown loss. VCU and USC both have great post scorers in Jamie Skeen and Nikola Vucevic who can score on the perimeter, which is a problem for GTown to defend because they don't have that flexibility with their big men. If Georgetown somehow wins and ends their current four-game slide, they will have to play another talented team with a versatile big man in Purdue and I don't think they have a prayer in that one. Meanwhile, Xavier should beat Marquette and then they have a tough game against Syracuse. The nice thing about the Syracuse game is that they play in Cleveland. That will be a big homecourt advantage because I doubt we see a ton of 'Cuse fans traveling to Cleveland when they have the potential to watch them in Newark the next weekend. The 'Cuse aren't a great matchup for Xavier on offense, mainly because they shoot below 33% from deep and get less than 23% of their points from the perimeter, but I think the X-men defense will stall a poor offense and they will be able to make enough plays to get through. I also think they matchup great with UNC and can beat them in Newark the next weekend so it's pretty much an Elite 8 team against a "one and done" and I'm getting plus-money.
Mountain West OVER 5 wins (+105)
-BYU in the Sweet 16 (2), UNLV thrashing Illinois (1) and SDSU reaching the final four (4) gives me seven. I don't think BYU can be beaten in Denver and maybe could steal a game in New Orleans against UF. I could see SDSU losing to Duke, but even think that will be hard to do.
Old Dominion reaches Sweet 16 (+523)
-Think they matchup extremely well with Pitt, and we won't see a ML anywhere near this high.
Florida to win Southwest (+425)
-The Gators have two games in Tampa before they get BYU in New Orleans and then some sort of upset from the top of the bracket. I don't see Pitt getting past ODU and even if they made it here I'll have a nicer number on a team with a better HCA.
San Diego State to win West (+425)
-Playing in Anaheim is the key, and if Duke doesn't shoot the ball extremely well from the field they'll get no rebounds and SDSU can score on Duke. Think they're playing great ball right now and I'd like to see them meet Ohio State in a game where the winner will take the title.
Championship:
Butler-Connecticut UNDER 128.5 (-110)
-The number is low, but it's low for a reason. Butler couldn't hit anything from outside in the last game, and UConn isn't much of a 3pt shooting team so I'm not too worried about the perimeter. Both teams are good at the foul line, which is a definite concern, but I think their recent decisions to play at such a slow pace will help my cause here. Truthfully, the number is about 6 points lower than I had hoped, but the nerves and the tough sightlines in Reliant Stadium should make it viable. Both teams will try to run if they have opportunities, but I think Brad Stevens will be focusing on keeping the Huskies from scoring easy baskets and his team won't look to push as much because they're so limited in depth compared to UConn. Huskies should win the rebounding battle and they will win the game if they can limit Butler's perimeter shots and keep them from going to the line. Should be a grind-it-out final game...
Final Four:
Virginia Commonwealth +3 (-110) vs. Butler
-It's been jumping between 2 and 2.5 all week, so after seeing it hit 3 then go back to 2.5 then go back to 3 again, I don't think we'll get the 3.5 and I'll take a push if VCU can't pull it out. All in all, this will be a very close game that could come down to the final possession. I think VCU is more athletic, better at rebounding and they shoot the 3 better than Butler does. If one team comes out on fire from the perimeter, that one will win, but if both teams are struggling from outside I think VCU can score easier than Butler can. Big coaching disadvantage here for the wager, but I've been sorta riding VCU and I will continue to do it. Will play the winner in the title game most likely, too. Off to Reliant...
NIT:
Alabama -1.5 (-105) vs. Colorado
-MSG is a terrible place for perimeter shooting teams, and that describes Colorado to a T (speaking of Kemba Walker's flop). I haven't done anything with the JV tournaments to this point, but this is a perfect place to start considering motivation can't be questioned now that both are in the world's most famous arena. I was hoping Alabama would make the real tournament because I thought they could win a couple games, but I will have to make my money on them here. They certainly struggle scoring at times, but they are better on offense than CU is on defense and I expect their rugged frontline to exploit CU's skinny kids on the interior. This line is too low, wish I had seen it at pk at the open, and I still think Alabama will win the NIT like I had originally predicted.
Elite Eight:
Arizona +1 (2H) vs. Connecticut (local)
-When Derrick Williams went out, UConn made their run. I still think he's a game-changing player and I'm sure Sean Miller is telling him not to commit any silly fouls on defense. That may hurt the UA post D a bit, but I'm not really scared about the little guards getting to the rack or the UConn big men scoring the ball. Definitely worried about an early charge, but Calhoun doesn't recruit floppers (lol). Would have loved Arizona +8 pregame so I'll take it here. Would play the pk or +1/2, too, but I had to grab the +1 when I saw it.
| Kansas-Virginia Commonwealth OVER 146 (-105) -I think we'll see a fast pace with a lot of pressing from VCU, like every game. Hopefully that leads to some turnovers to keep the Rams in the game so we can at least get some fouling late. I think VCU is going to push KU a lot because I don't think KU is as good as everyone thinks, but the Jayhawks are great in transition and they have a lot of shooters. I think we see a fair amount of 3pt attempts when they break the press and that's VCU's offense, so in order for this over to hit we need some decent percentages. Both teams are deep so I'm not too worried about tired legs, even with the Rams coming off an OT victory and a hard fought game against FSU. | |
| North Carolina -1.5 (-110, 2H) vs. Kentucky -I thought UNC should be favored, and I still think the same thing. UK played a great first half, but it was back-and-forth until Henson went out with his 3rd foul. He's going to have to learn not to commit silly fouls, and I think the dual posts that the Tar Heels can throw at them will present problems for UK in the 2H. I also get UNC +6.5 for the game, so I'll play it and hope this will come down to the wire. Harrison Barnes has to play better than he did earlier and I think the Heels will hit the glass hard when Henson gets back in there. |
| San Diego State -1 (-108) vs. Connecticut -Carlwell is a ton more polished than Okwandu, just too big to play a ton of minutes. D.J. Gay will matchup with Napier or when Shabazz is resting he should guard Kemba to stay with his speed. Probably not a wash at all, but they will have a rotation on Kemba and showing him different bodies will help. These two teams are extremely similar, I would even say SDSU is like a veteran version of this UConn team right now because they have developed offensive games and UConn does not. Oriakhi can't score, Okwandu doesn't have a prayer and Olander has that little elbow jumper but I don't think he will be counted on much cuz he shoots less than twice per game. Roscoe isn't much of a scorer, which leaves Coombs-McDaniel who had a few great games in conference play against the worst team in the world (PC) and then Giffey/Beverly. Remaining is the best clutch player in the country, who shot like 30% down the stretch in conference yet he will certainly score, and two freshmen. I'm not sure how much you can count on Lamb or Napier to make perimeter shots as they only shot 35% and 33% respectively. This will be the biggest game of their careers and they will be off a long trip and pretty much in an away gym if SDSU can get their shit together and make the short trip to Anaheim. The rest of the team relies on offensive rebounding, which the 'Tecs allow 10% less of those per game than UConn is accustomed to seeing, and the length inside is going to alter shots. UConn lives on easy buckets from their bigs because they're not polished offensive players, but the long arms of Malcolm Thomas and Billy White plus the bulk of Carlwell and Tim Shelton will limit that. If they're not getting much from the frontcourt, it puts a ton of pressure on the freshmen and then Kemba will go into Kobe mode like we've all seen plenty of times. Meanwhile, UConn's defense has always been about blocking shots, but both teams are in the top 20 in the opposing category of blocked shots versus not having your shots blocked. SDSU is pretty close to UConn's number in that regard anyways, which demonstrates their length. Rebounding will be key as it's the most important stat besides shooting in my estimation, which both teams are capable of doing at a high level. SDSU's offense will make or break this game for them. They struggle to shoot from the perimeter at times, but Chase Tapley (40%) and James Rahon (43%) can fill it up. The problem is they get other players who aren't as good at the deep ones taking the shots like Kawhi (29%) and White (35%), but I don't think they'll be doing it much. Gay also hasn't been shooting well from out there yet he has similar numbers to Lamb from distance. The Aztecs can score inside, meanwhile, because they have a polished post player in Malcolm Thomas who can really score they just haven't gone to him enough for some reason. They need to if they want to win. On top of all that, you have a professional 4 playing the 3 with catcher's mit hands and he will take Lamb into the post and have his way with him if Calhoun chooses to do that. Most people are betting UConn because of Kemba, their Big East tournament run, their Maui tournament run or because SDSU played not to lose in the last few minutes of the Temple game and sorta got lucky to advance despite leading the entire game, and I think it's wrong. SDSU is better than that end of game performance and I think we'll all see that. Btw, I saw Kemba break McGhee's ankles in person and love that I got to see it live. I just haven't liked UConn much going into the year and I think they lose to a better team if Fisher can control Kemba and with all the Jimmer practice I think he can. | |
I'm trying to figure out if I really like Butler or if I just want Wisconsin to lose because it'll put me in great shape for the pools I'm leading. Both teams love to shoot the 3, so a cold day could hurt either of them. I think the better shooting team is Butler and 4 is a ridiculous number here. It should be 1 or 2, imo, and I probably will play Butler because it's just too big. Both teams are mirror images of each other with the perimeter shooting and the great percentages at the stripe, but I favor Stevens in the coaching matchup. Jon Leuer is a major concern. I would like to see Khyle Marshall guarding him, but he won't be out there all game long. Wisconsin has a size advantage, but they don't really use it inside. Rebounding will again be key for Butler, but they held their own against the best one I've seen and then Pitt. BU can come back from dead with the 3pt shot and they can certainly backdoor the 4 so why not lock it now.
Virginia Commonwealth +4.5 (-105) vs. Florida State
-The Rams have some depth in the frontcourt, but they're not going to score much in there. They are going to use their press against one of the most careless teams in the country, considering FSU ranking 320th in the nation in turnover % according to kenpom. The 'Noles compensate that with their defense, but VCU is going to make this into a transition game where they can get some open shots on the perimeter. Whether they make them or not is anybody's guess, but I think VCU can turn them over and FSU doesn't scare me at the line either.
NCAA Third Round:
Kentucky -4 (-115, 2H) vs. West Virginia
-That finish to the half was ridiculous and the calls all went WVU's way. This is risky because UK is in foul trouble, but I think they're a much better team and the switch to the zone was giving WVU fits the few times they ran it. A poor outside shooting team shot 42% and I don't expect that to continue considering they shoot 33.6% on the year. I have Kentucky winning this game and I think they can come back from this.
Kansas State-Wisconsin UNDER 125.5 (-110)
-Bo Ryan always determines the pace of his games, and although Wisconsin is extremely efficient I don't think they can put those type of numbers up against a great defensive team like KSU. The K-State length is going to be the biggest problem for the perimeter shooters on Wisconsin, but I think it will be very difficult for the 'Cats to keep up on the scoreboard with limited possessions. Badgers win this going away.
Butler +8 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh
-I just don't think Pitt is this much better than a quality mid-major. I originally had Pitt losing this game to ODU, and I think it can happen here, too. Butler is going to make this game extremely slow with very few possessions and the Bulldogs ability from the perimeter can neutralize the athletic and bulk advantages that Pitt has. After seeing how well the Bulldogs rebounded against the best rebounding team in the country, ODU, I can't help but think they will be able to do it against Pitt too. Huge coaching advantage for Stevens, and I actually think Butler will get the calls today more than Pitt. Should see plenty of fans rooting for the underdog and I don't like Pitt at the line closing games out. Should come down to the wire...
Texas -6 (-110, 2H) vs. Arizona
-Texas is so much better than UA, but coaching and a poor shooting 1H has made the opposite happen so far. Derrick Williams has two fouls, which is key if he can pick up another or get to four he will become a very different player. I just can't see Texas shooting so poorly from the field, and that is even if Rick Barnes doesn't make any halftime adjustments because you really can't count on him to do anything to help the team win when they aren't 100% more talented than the other. UA makes their FTs, so if Texas doesn't win this is going to be scary because I have them +5 for the game, but I think they'll come back and win thanks to a ridiculous defensive effort.
NCAA Second Round:
George Mason -1.5 (-110) vs. Villanova
-Not much behind this other than solid team only laying a few points to a team I decided I was going to fade until they were out of the tournament. Villanova can't really beat anybody right now so I'll take a team that has something to prove in GMU to knock out a reeling team.
Xavier -1.5 (-110) vs. Marquette
-The Musketeers are one of my teams to watch, even with the poor performance in the Atlantic 10 tournament. I think they can go very far based on a short rotation of very talented players. You can question their outside shooting, but they are solid all-around. In this game they have an advantage on the interior with two very talented big men and a great role player off the bench, while their guards are as solid and as experienced as anyone. Love that the game is in Cleveland, as it's only a short drive from Cincinnati and the MU faithful didn't go to NYC so why would they show up in droves in Cleveland.
Old Dominion -1.5 (-110) vs. Butler
-Hate to fade Butler as they're a very talented team, but ODU is going far in this tournament. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and they can play at Butler's slow pace. They're probably going to let Butler get off quite a few 3pt shots because they play zone, but the matchup zone is so tough with all their length. The Monarchs should own the glass on the interior on both sides of the court and the game is close to home in DC.
UNLV -1.5 (-110) vs. Illinois
-Illinois is the softest team in division one. Their bigs are scared to back down point guards in the post and that's an awful thing against a rugged defensive team like the Rebels. This is two opposite teams in all facets of the game, but defense wins championships and to win championships you need first round games. I'll take the struggles that UNLV has on offense at times because their defense is so good. They're going to get a sloppy PG like Demetri McCamey to turn the ball over in their press, and they're going to harass the perimeter shooters all game. The Illini being a 9-seed is a joke.
Florida State pk (-105) vs. Texas A&M
-I think Singleton's playing, but these teams are the exact same team except FSU has so much more length and size. Should be low-scoring and I'll take the bigger team. Who knows what we'll get for coaching in this one...
Virginia Commonwealth +6 (-108) vs. Georgetown
-VCU is deep so I'm not as concerned with the quick turnaround as I was with Clemson playing at noon, plus I haven't seen a good game from Georgetown since Chris Wright's injury. I think VCU can and will win this one, so why not play the spread and hope they take it SU.
Conference Tourney Futures:
| Old Dominion Win CAA Tourney (+200) -Playing this on the same scale as a single-game +200 ML dog, instead of the half unit I have on SDSU to win the title (pretty unlikely at this point cuz they can't beat a zone or BYU). The Monarchs are about 1.5 hours from their home in Norfolk to the tournament in Richmond, so I think they will have a pretty good following. They have to think they need to win the tournament to get a bid, even with Lunardi projecting them as in, and I think they get to the title game and I'll get a better number than what will be available. If they meet up with GMU they should be a small dog, but if the Patriots go down to James Madison or VCU in the semis then I think I'll be in great shape as ODU will be a prohibitive favorite. This team proved they can win on the big stage from last year's NCAA tournament run and they are very good at the second most important statistic in the game, rebounding the basketball. I'm not sold on GMU being a great team although they may be one of the hottest with the 16 straight wins, and the teams split the season series mainly due to a terrible shooting night for ODU in game two. I don't think that happens again in the final when they know they need to perform well to get in the tournament, but I think their road is much easier to the final considering how they handled Hofstra and JMU this season. Just get to the final and I'll feel smart... | |
3/12: Michigan +10.5 (-110) vs. Ohio State -Ohio State's motivation can certainly be questioned, and Michigan is going to slow the pace. I think Ohio State is the most complete team in the nation, but this is a ton of points. Kansas -4 (-110) vs. Texas -Kansas has a huge revenge factor in this one. Texas won in Lawrence, ending a huge home win streak, and it was mainly because the team was up all night and got no rest after hearing about Thomas Robinson's mother's death. KU has a huge following in KC and they should take this one easily against a scuffling Texas squad. 3/11: Alabama ML (+107) vs. Georgia Mitchell should be healthy enough and he can guard Thompkins, while JaMychal Green can score consistently on the inside against Price and Senario Hillman can lock down Travis Leslie. I think the Tide will force the trigger-happy UGA guards to beat them from the perimeter and that's a good sign considering the b2b and their inability to shoot the three. This is a huge game for the bubble, which I actually think UGA has a better chance of getting the at-large with a loss today. Rooting for Bama and I think they're superior. Clemson -3.5 (-108) vs. Boston College -I had BC in their last meeting in Littlejohn and the Eagles were lucky not to get blown out. The Eagles live by the 3pt line and I don't know if they can shoot close to the same percentages at a neutral and in a b2b, while Clemson dominated them on the interior in their last meeting. Jarai Grant should have similar success considering how he's too fast for Josh Southern and too big/talented for Joe Trapani. He's a matchup they just can't beat, and the quick Clemson guards should have plenty of opportunities to use their speed to get to the rim for easy baskets. Hate laying more than a possession with a bad FT shooting team, but the rest and the domination inside forces me to play a line that should be a field goal bigger. 3/10: Syracuse -2.5 (-105) vs. St. John's Cincinnati ML (+130) vs. Notre Dame 3/8: South Florida +9.5 (-101) vs. Villanova -I'm on the fade 'Nova train, and should have won against them on Pitt this weekend but didn't. Nonetheless, Villanova won @USF behind some ridiculous shooting to the tune of 75% from deep. That won't happen in MSG, where good shooting averages go to die, and I think the USF size advantage is huge. They will own the glass against a team that can't score reliably and I think USF is stingy enough on defense to keep Wayns and Fisher out of the paint so they're going to force a poor outside shooting team to rely on the outside shot in a tough gym to score. 3/6: Furman-Charleston OVER 135 (-110) -Furman loves to shoot the ball and so does C of C. I think we'll see a ton of fouling as this is a knockout game because neither of these teams will get an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney. Of the two games this season, one went over in a tight battle and the other was a blowout. I think Furman is a live dog tonight and we'll see this come down to FTs late, which will hopefully trump the nervous energy that might make some shots miss until both teams get settled. 3/5: Vanderbilt -4 (-110) vs. Florida -Was high on Florida in the beginning of the season picking them to make the Final Four before the games started, but I don't like them as much after watching them play and they still aren't good on the road. Vandy took their lumps @Kentucky this week, while UF buried Alabama mainly because they couldn't miss from deep in the 2H. I don't expect that to happen tomorrow, as Vandy should have won in the Swamp but got victimized by a horrible no-call on a 3pt shot. Even without that, a Jeffery Taylor point-blank miss was the reason it went to overtime. As for this one, UF doesn't have a guy to stop John Jenkins, plus Vandy has versatile players to matchup with Vernon Macklin and Chandler Parsons. Without the bracket in front of me, I picked Vandy to make the Elite 8 on Monday. I think their talent is diverse enough to do that and I will play them laying four in the weirdest gym in all the land. Baylor +4 (-110) vs. Texas -Here is the annual slide from my 'Horns, this time coming way later than it normally does. Anyways, Baylor needs this win to get in the tournament with an at-large bid. The atmosphere in Waco will be crazy because ever Bear wants to beat UT almost as badly as the Aggies, and they are actually more athletic. This is going to be a tough game that will go down to the wire, so I will take the four and hope Texas hits a shot at the buzzer to win. Duke -3.5 (-110, 2H) @ North Carolina -Duke came from behind in the first matchup, so why not do it again. UNC got some easy baskets and I think Coach K will focus on that in the 2H. A gross coaching mismatch in this one and Duke can hit 3s to get back into the game, so getting Duke +7.5 for the game is enough for me. I think we see a good effort from Duke so let's do it. Colorado State +12 (-102) @ San Diego State -CSU is fighting for an at-large tournament bid, and they play the 2-3 which has caused a ton of problems for the Aztecs this year. The earlier game this season came down to a last second shot by D.J. Gay, so why not again? 3/3: Ucla-Washington UNDER 71 (-110, 1H) -This is a "hold your nose" play, but I think it has to be made. The Bruins began the year looking to get out and run, but that was quickly stifled when conference play hit and they have sunk back to 66.6 possessions/game sitting in the middle of division one. Washington has been scuffling recently with question marks extending from their depth to their shooting to their rotation, etc. Meanwhile, the best coach in America comes in realizing that he needs to slow the game down to win. He introduced a 2-3 zone last season that gave teams a lot of problems and made a bad team into an average one, and now an NCAA tournament team should be able to keep it close in what should be a raucous environment in Seattle. I chose the 1st half because this could be tight late, and if trailing Washington will foul with 3 minutes remaining and they score a ton of points at home anyways. I get to avoid overtime, and I'll need a good 1H to win the bet anyways so why not let it all ride here. That way I can go watch Jersey Shore if I fail... 3/2: Miami FL ML (+115) vs. Maryland -I've had the same opinion on Maryland this year and that's that they can't win if Jordan Williams isn't scoring at will on the interior. I think he will be limited tonight and Miami hits a ton of 3pt shots at home which will make it nearly impossible for the Terps to catch up on the scoreboard because of how poorly they shoot from the charity stripe and the perimeter. It's amazing to me that the Terps are the same type of favorite in Coral Gables that UNC was earlier in the year, but I lost that bet and it's where UNC took off for the season. The difference between UNC and UMD is that if the 'Canes jump out to a big lead, the Terps won't be able to catch up. Gross coaching mismatch here, but the location of the game is a huge part of the play. The U is good in the spoiler role as they often play their best basketball towards the end of the season in the ACC tournament, so maybe that happens here after good performances against Duke, Clemson, BC and FSU despite the 1-3 SU record. Duke -6.5 (-115, 2H) vs. Clemson -Demontez Stitt is Clemson's MVP and he's been ill all week. He looked good in the 1H, but I think he'll tire and his strep throat or whatever will catch up to him. Coach K is the best coach in America at making halftime adjustments, and I think the easy shots that Duke was missing in the 1H won't be missed in the second. They make their FTs, unlike Clemson, and the Tigers are primed for the perfect "keep it close first and then fade in the second" that all the DD road dogs do. |
Boston College +9 (-109) @ Virginia Tech
-Huge letdown here for the Hokies after the tournament bid-clinching win at home against Duke on Saturday. I'm sure the parties were great and the girls were flocking, but BC is still out in the cold and a big win like this on the road could go a long way to get them in the tourney. BC's a tough team to back on the road because they love launching threes, but they are in a great spot while VT is in a flat one and there are a few reasons why VT will struggle to cover this type of number. In the first matchup, VT's Jeff Allen owned the glass and I don't expect that type of domination tonight. The last time I played BC with this type of line, they actually toed the line and had a great last night to cover @Clemson. The difference between Clemson and VT is that Clemson has an interior scoring in Jarai Grant. On top of that, VT is terrible at the charity stripe and that goes a long way to winning (or covering) a game. I think this game will be tight and the motivation is all on the visitor's side so I'll take the 9 and hope they hang.
2/28:
Notre Dame -4 (-110) vs. Villanova
-The fade Villanova train has started once again this season. Will look to fade them until they're done playing basketball this year as the wheels have fallen off. Everyone knows what they can't do on offense (shoot) and they're going into a very tough environment where ND will shoot the lights out and seemingly run away from the Wildcats to a point where they won't be caught. Yarou is a concern inside, but he's not polished enough to be a serious threat so they dodge that bullet. Stokes is a mismatch for a lot of teams because he's 6'5" and can stroke it from outside, but that is pretty much the entire ND roster. Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns are probably going to get theirs, but the Irish have the freshman PG and Hansbrough to D up if they need to go small and defend. I just think the Irish are a quality team/Villanova is sliding and ND matches up well with the 'Cats and can answer everything they want to do. The line is way short and I'm happy to get it here.
2/27:
Xavier-Dayton UNDER 63 (-110, 1H)
-I think Dayton is going to have a ton of trouble scoring in the half-court against this team, but they're not going to get out and start running until later in the game when they realize that. XU is going to keep the pace slow because they have a short bench, and I still doubt that they can score the basketball efficiently when they're not getting easy buckets. I chose the 1H instead of the full-game because I think this could be a close one and I don't want to lose because of the fouls at the end.
2/26:
San Diego State -4 (-110) vs. Brigham Young
-Don't love laying this many against Jimmer, but I did bet SDSU the first time and I think they boast the best frontcourt in the nation. BYU can be exploited inside, and I think Steve Fisher found a way to stop Jimmer in the first meeting by putting length on him. He incorrectly thought D.J. Gay's speed could contain him in the first meeting, but he's too important with fouls and such. A combination of Billy White (who he showed last game) and possibly Kawhi Leonard/Tim Shelton/Chase Tapley to get some additional length. The revenge factor here is unbelievable, and SDSU should get the win. I was hesitant with the 3.5, but I thought a lot about the game and I think this game will be decided before the final minute so the charity stripe is not a concern.
Mississippi State +11 (-110) @ Tennessee
-Just saw it move to 10.5 on BM and I think that's the way it'll go. Grabbed it on 5dimes, but I think there's a let-down here after the huge road win in Nashville and the Bulldogs are better than their record shows. Renardo Sidney is a huge problem for UT's defense, along with the speed of Dee Bost and the various 3pt shooters who showed they can connect in raucous environments with the close game in Rupp. Think this is too many points, but I've been burned by these Bulldogs before. They are one of the best teams needing to win their conference tournament to get in, and that's sad.
Arizona State +10.5 (-109) @ Southern Cal
-Going back to the fade USC well, but I don't think they cover this line against a lot of teams because they don't blow people out. ASU is terrible, but they play a zone which will force USC's role players to score. That's tough enough, even though Jio Fontan broke the 20-point mark on Thursday. Points should be at a premium in this one and the Devils should take advantage of a huge let-down for USC in this one.
Portland-St. Mary's OVER 142.5 (-110)
-The o/u on 3pt attemps in this game is probably 52.5 and I know that's dangerous, but I think we see a ton of points here. SMC shoots ridiculously well at home in Muraga, comparable to BYU at the Marriott Center, and they are on a bad streak right now. Blowing the OT game at home against Gonzaga was huge, but so was blowing the Utah State and USD games before that one. The Gaels are on a bad run right now and Portland is a team that can catch them on a let-down. I fear taking the points because SMC shoots the ball so damn well, so I think this over hits in a close game or if SMC shoots their brains out and Portland can't keep up. The Gaels blowing their last 3 games pretty much makes me think they will fight to keep scoring the basketball even with a lead, while the OT game Thursday night may hurt their legs on the defensive end. Portland will use their screens and pull-ups to keep SMC off balance and I think they will connect on their fair share of them (I mean they are 2nd in the country hitting 42.2% of their 3pt attempts)
2/24:
Arizona -1 (-110) @ Southern Cal
-I've had a bad read on USC ever since they went to Knoxville and beat Tennessee. I even played the Trojans in their visit to Tucson, but they were never really in the game and failed to cover my spread. In reality, Nikola Vucevic is the only good player on that team who can score consistently. The home court familiarity should help the V-men, but who knows if that will allow them to win a game against a team they didn't push earlier in the year. The line is short and I don't think there's any way USC becomes a favorite so I'll play it now. I could sell off later because it is a let-down for UA after the emotional win at home against UDub, but they can clinch this week so I think we see a focused bunch winning on the road.
2/19:
UNLV-Colorado State UNDER 136.5
-CSU won't let UNLV run and the 2-3 will force UNLV to hit perimeter shots, which they simply can't do. Hope CSU wins this cuz I think UNLV is in at this point and I'd like CSU to be in there, too.
Saint Mary's -3 (-110) vs. Utah State
-Grabbed this at the open while driving between Austin and Houston (dangerous, I know). SMC is going to come out firing at home after the shocking loss @USD and I think Utah State is ranked based off of the team's of years ago and a really weak WAC. SMC shoots the perimeter shot better than anyone at home, and I think that will be very tough for a USU team that likes to slow the game down. USU also doesn't have the dominant post presence that they were built around, so I really don't think USU can keep up if SMC hits some shots. After the loss and at home, they will.
2/16:
Vanderbilt ML (+140) @ Georgia
Vandy's D is a question mark, but I'm not sure that's warranted. They have played in much tougher environments this season and beaten much better teams. The trouble scoring comment is all about the type of defense Vandy plays. They can go man, but they also play the 2-3 zone and are very good at it. UGA's one blemish on the team is perimeter shooting, which they often cover up with their athleticism but I don't think they can do that tonight. Mark Fox built his success on a perimeter offense in Reno, but he simply doesn't have that here and I don't think they can shoot well enough to get Vandy out of the zone. If they can, that's where they can take advantage of their athleticism in one-on-one situations in man, but I don't think we see that. I also think the best decision for UGA would be to guard Jenkins with Travis Leslie, but he'll probably be on the struggling Jeffery Taylor. If Taylor gets a smaller guy he can take them to the hole for easy buckets, so that's a tough decision for Fox to make. I also think the Goulbourne/Odom combination can slow down Trey Thompkins' production and if Andre Walker is back that's just another athletic body they can throw at him. That leaves Ezeli keeping Price from getting easy buckets and Tinsley/Fuller to simply keep the UGA PGs from getting lay-ups.
Iowa State-Texas A&M UNDER 139 (-110)
-I was originally hoping for a number in the mid 130s to go under, either 34 or 35, so i'll grab the 139 here especially with the injury news. No Vanderbeken means one less perimeter shooter for ISU and they now have basically zero size in the middle. Texas A&M is going to kill them on the glass and probably the scoreboard, so I can't imagine seeing a foulfest at the end. Hoiberg should slow it down considering his limited depth to start with, but now with this injury I can't see them running with a much deeper team on the road. Both teams are efficient at the line, but I think a blowout leads to a lot of clock-bleeding and this game will be played at TAMU's pace.
Oklahoma State-Texas UNDER 131 (-110)
-We always blow them out at home, and they have such puny guards who won't be able to score tonight. Unimpressed with the OSU frontcourt as well, and this is going to be over in the first half. Didn't take the 1H under because I think the rout starts early and the slow tempo will be late in the game once the outcome is obvious.
2/13:
Marquette-Georgetown OVER 76.5 (-110, 2H)
-About a 3 1/2 point window between my adjusted total and what we're looking for in this game, which started extremely slow and then took off. Georgetown was missing all their open shots, which they normally bury at home, and I think there will be a lot more fouls/running in the 2H because that's what Marquette is good at doing. GTown wants to win this one to stay in the running for a double-bye in the Big East tournament, and even without Austin Freeman (who I think will return) I think they have the firepower to make this a game in the second half.
Purdue pk (-110, 2H) @ Illinois
-I don't like Illinois this year and I haven't been quiet about it. I think they had a few chances to take a big lead in the 1H, which I was actually rooting for, but JaJuan Johnson isn't going to shoot as poorly as he did early. I also think we see more than 2 shots attempted by E'Twuan Moore. Purdue has the two best players on the court, and I'll bite on them +5 for the game in a contest I think they can win.
Providence +10 (-110) @ Connecticut
-Hate to fade UConn after that embarrassing loss in MSG, but PC plays a zone and I don't think UConn has proved they can score against that type of defense. PC has looked terrible on the road at times this year, but they have also fought really hard and Marshon Brooks is a tough person to stop for 40 minutes. Just think the line is too big with Kemba Walker's current form.
2/12:
South Florida +6 (-105) vs. Notre Dame
USF probably doesn't have much confidence seeing as they haven't even reached double-digit wins on the season, but I think they realize they have played some very good teams tough on the season and have been in position to win a few of them as well. I think bad teams in college hoops are either fighting to get wins, or they've given up. I don't think USF has given up, actually I think they are fighting to get some big wins and they know that they still have a shot in the Big East tournament to go on a run and get an automatic bid. It's probably not even close to likely, but I bet that's what Stan Heath is preaching and I would think that the Bulls are used to the spoiler role and they want to protect their home court. I like Notre Dame more now than I did at the beginning of the year, but they are tiny inside compared to the USF trees similar to Marquette. I also wouldn't call Notre Dame much better than Marquette because they split on the season and MU blew them out in Milwaukee by 22 points. My concerns with USF are certainly an emotional let-down after blowing the Marquette game, but they've done it before and responded well. I'm concerned if ND tries to run because USF needs an ugly game to compete, but perimeter shooting is going to determine this game. ND loves to shoot the 3 and they're good at it, but they are so much better at home than on the road. I think it is a travel nightmare for Big East teams to go all the way to Tampa in the winter, as it's a long trip and the players want to get outside in the sun. Motivation is an issue and so is focus. That's what USF preys on....
Vandy pk (-110) vs. Kentucky
Wisconsin pk (-110) vs. Ohio State
Villanova -2.5 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh
2/10:
Connecticut-St. John's UNDER 61.5 (-110)
St. John's ML (+115) vs. Connecticut
-The Johnnies 2-3 zone will pose problems for a UConn team that makes one of every three shots from the perimeter. I think the UConn inexperience is going to be a problem playing under the bright lights in MSG, where most of their players have watched the Knicks for years. I can picture a ton of "Wow, this is so cool" comments from the UConn players, while SJU is experienced and used to the arena. I also think SJU has the inside players to make the UConn bigs work on both sides of the ball. SJU can win this game with interior scoring, which UConn does a great job of limiting considering their top-10 ratings in 2pt FG% against and blocks. This will also help the 1H under, as SJU's defense will force UConn into long shots against a defense they didn't play well against in the loss to Syracuse and in a gym that doesn't allow for very good outside shooting numbers on this level. Kemba is a scary fellow, but Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb are two young guys that could get a little distracted on the road in a hallowed place like MSG. I think they'll sink into the background tonight and Kemba's recent swoon in his shooting percentage will result in a loss for the Huskies when he tries to do it all by himself.
Minnesota -1 (-110) vs. Illinois-Illinois has been awful on the road this year, mainly because they rely on jumpshots to win and they're much harder to come by away from home. Minnesota has problems at the point because Al Nolen broke his foot and Devoe Joseph got kicked off the team, but I don't think Illinois can take advantage of that with a press they haven't really shown all year long. I think Minnesota has the post players to defend the Mikes on offense, and they have a huge advantage because they actually use their size and strength. Ralph Sampson III, Colton Iverson and Trevor Mbakwe can all bang inside grabbing rebounds and scoring the basketball, which Davis and Tisdale don't do. The Barn should help the Gophers backcourt who is at a disadvantage here, but I think Minnesota wins this on the interior.
2/9:
South Florida +6.5 (-110) vs. Marquette
-Marquette struggles against big frontcourts because they really don't have anyone to bang inside. USF has been one of my darlings this year and they have two talented big men that can take advantage of MU's weakness. I also firmly believe that MU is a team I love in the underdog role and hate as a favorite because they are forced to play to the other team's weakness instead of being superior at something like you want most favorites to be. MU doesn't shoot the ball well and I expect less of them to drop tonight in Tampa, so it will take a great defensive effort from the visitors to cover this number. It also helps that the travel aspect to Tampa is a nightmare for the Big East teams who want to enjoy the weather as much as they want to play. Look-ahead factor with Georgetown up next, too.
Wake Forest +8.5 (-110) vs. Miami FL
-This is a hold your nose play at its best, but The U has trouble closing out games. They let UNC off the hook at home, almost choked the game away against GT and generally struggle at putting games away. Meanwhile, WFU is scrapping and clawing to get some ACC wins to grab some momentum for next year. I just don't like 3pt shooting teams on the road and Miami is certainly that, along with the fact that I think WFU has the length on the interior to bother Reggie Johnson if the 'Canes can even get the ball to him because they usually fail. The U has Duke on deck, which isn't a major look-ahead but it is a win that could get them back toward the bubble so maybe somebody is looking past the Deacs.
2/8:
Boston College +9 (-110) @ Clemson
-Simply put, Clemson isn't this good. They play great basketball at home, and they beat my NCSU play a few weeks back when they were down 18 at one point and still covered the number, but this isn't right. Clemson isn't better in any category and the HCA can only do so much. They're not good at the charity stripe and that is important in covering this sort of number. I can't help to think this line is sucking people in because I played Wofford in this same venue at +10.5 and won. So BC is only -1.5 at a neutral against Wofford? No f-ing way. This line is way off and if it was made this way for a reason then, like a fish, I'm hooked. I like Coach Donahue and I think the road woes I've had lately will slow down starting tonight.
2/6:
Florida State +7 (-105) @ North Carolina
-Lost the entire first write-up, or it won't post, but it was basically FSU takes away what UNC does best. UNC wins with pace and a frontcourt other teams can't match, but FSU can limit both.
2/5:
St. John's-Ucla UNDER 136.5
Texas A&M -4.5 (-110) vs. Baylor
Alabama ML (+190) @ Tennessee
-Last game without Pearl, but Hopson missing the game is a huge problem. I don't think the Vols can score reliably against the Tide and Anthony Grant's unbelievable defensive turnaround. Screw the points...
Arkansas -2 (-110) vs. Mississippi
Kentucky -1 (-105, 2H) @ Florida
-They barely missed shots that could have them leading at halftime, and they will shoot UF out of the zone. Foul trouble is a concern, but everyone sat with 2 and that late shot is a big momentum swinger.
2/3:
Valparaiso +6.5 (-105) @ Cleveland State
CSU great 3pt D, but Valpo doesn't rely on the 3pt shot much even if they take 18 per game because most of their points come inside the arc (55.4%). The good 3pt shooters seem like they take most of the shots, so that's a good sign, but their 2pt% is awesome. CSU forces turnovers and Valpo will oblige, but they play a very similar pace so I don't think you have to worry about the turnovers leading to quick scores. CSU is great at the line, but the look-ahead to Butler makes me think they'll struggle early and Valpo already has a win against them this year. CSU with a major look-ahead to Butler and the slow pace that we should see will help Valpo a ton. I also think they're a bit under the radar sitting 2nd in the conference when most people thought it'd be Butler's or CSU's automatic bid. If it comes down to FTs, CSU shooting 72% on the season is a concern, too, but i think this one will be a nailbiter.
2/2:
Syracuse-Connecticut UNDER 65 (-110, 1H)
-UConn's diminutive guards will struggle to shoot over the 'Cuse zone because of the length of the defenders. On the other side, UConn's bigs will be able to limit offensive rebounds and Syracuse is awful at the line. I think Kemba Walker is wearing down and his supporting cast isn't enough to score on their own once opposing coaches realize that. Hate full-game unders with the OT chances, so I'll sell some points for the 1H line and hope a slow start translates to a low-scoring half.
La Salle +9.5 (-102) vs. Temple
-I've liked this La Salle team throughout the season, and I guess I've been lucky with them in their win against Providence and the cover against Villanova as they are one of the most inconsistent teams in college basketball. They have a very good post player in F/C Aaric Murray, who should get some help from the supporting cast at home tonight. Temple hasn't played up to expectations this season, and I don't think they're built to destroy a team without a healthy Juan Fernandez at the point. I think La Salle has a reasonable chance at winning this one, but take the points because this number should cover the fouling at the end.
Seton Hall +8.5 (-102) @ West Virginia
-I already touched on it so i'm just copying and pasting below, but Casey Mitchell's absence is a huge problem for WVU on the scoreboard especially when playing a team that will use the 2-3 zone. SHU needs to rebound, but I went to high school with Joe Mazzulla and he's not the offensive player that should be leading a team like WVU in scoring. Until Kevin Jones steps up into the player we all thought he'd be this year, I will be looking to fade this team with this sort of number.
Reasons why I like the Hall:
-WVU struggles to shoot from the perimeter
-No Casey Mitchell will make it even harder to shoot the Hall out of the 2-3
-WVU is middle of the road at FTs
-WVU has Villanova and Pitt on deck, looking ahead?
-WVU can get loose with the basketball
Concerns:
-Rebounding in general
-Rebounding when SHU goes zone
-Scoring in the half-court if Hazell shoots poorly
2/1:
Vanderbilt ML (+175) @ Florida
-The Gators were one of the teams I liked pre-season and they play great at home, but I think Vandy is better and I think they can go on the road and win. UF simply doesn't bring their best effort to their games and Vandy always does. The 'Dores lost in embarrassing fashion at home to Arkansas on Saturday, and I think they will respond tonight. They have two of the most prolific scorers in the conference in John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor, who will produce less than they do at home, but I think this Vandy team is strong enough to go into Gainesville and win. I also prefer Kevin Stallings to Billy Donovan.
1/31:
Georgetown -5 (-110) vs. Louisville
-GTown is getting really hot, while Louisville is off a double OT victory in Storrs. I think UL is all about smoke and mirrors combined with turnovers, which I doubt will happen for an experienced team at home. GU has advantages on the interior and better shooters at home compared to being on the road. I also think Austin Freeman can cement the cover with some FTs late if he needs to.
Texas A&M ML (+100) vs. Texas
-Saw this moving to pk and I didn't want to lose the even money because I would play this up to -2.5 in all honesty. To put it bluntly, Reed Arena is a house of horrors for my boys from Austin. We haven't won there through my four years at the school, and you can add two years onto that to make the six straight seasons we haven't won in C-Stat. This Texas team is better than it has been despite less talent, which is puzzling all in itself, but TAMU is better, too. I like the Aggies defense, which will be assisted by the home calls that will certainly come in front of a deafening, pro-farmer crowd. The Ags are a team I generally don't want to win, but this was -1.5 last year (which was a joke) and I don't think you can dog TAMU in this situation until Texas shows they can win again. The UT FT woes are well-documented, while TAMU gets a lot of points from the foul line. I think the refs will call touch fouls to keep the rivalry game in line, which will help the Ags because neither of these teams are great offensively. Texas has unbelievable 2pt and 3pt D, which the Aggies also lock down the 3pt line to a similar tune, but the Ags take care of business at the line and Texas doesn't. I think that will be the deciding factor tonight, plus the TAMU role players that go out of their minds in this game and then never show up again.
1/30:
Providence-Seton Hall UNDER 72.5 (-110, 1H)
-We're gonna see a ton of zone in this one and not much transition play. PC is awful from outside yet they take a lot of shots, and the only true concern for me is Jeremy Hazell on the outside shooting over the PC 1-3-1 if you can even call it that. Bilal Dixon should minimize Herb Pope's scoring and I think the game will be a slow-paced one after seeing how PC got their last two wins with relatively low final scores. The Hall probably takes this one, but I just need two mid 30s for the first half and I think the zones will limit fouls/bonuses/clock stoppages and that'll be enough to get me on the right track.
Miami +8.5( -110) @VT
-Big game from Reggie Johnson and I think Miamis depth will help them match up defensively.
1/29:
| Ohio State -10 (-105) @ Northwestern -If this is close at the end I deserve to lose, but this should be a blowout. No Shurna means one less scorer for the Bucks to worry about. No look-ahead present so I think we see Ohio State take care of business again. NW has no one to stop Sullinger, their 1-3-1 defense can't stop athletic teams (like tOSU) and I think the visitors shoot the ball better than the home team. Again, I hate road chalk and can understand if you don't want to play this, but I got the number I was hoping for and I'm going to play it and watch for the 30-point victory. Gonna get uggggggggly in Evanston tonight. | |
| Southern California +6.5 (-102) @ Arizona -Guessed the movement so wrong and it'll probably come back to bite me. Loved USC at 8 and I told myself I'd take 6, which I'm still above yet still very angry with the points I've missed. I think Nikola Vucevic is an awful matchup for the Wildcats as their foreign big will struggle to stop such a polished offensive player. I also think Marcus Simmons will make it very difficult for Derrick Williams to score, so if the UA role players beat me then I'll tip my hat and think I made a good bet. Look for a big night from Vucevic and a smaller night from Williams. | |
Mississippi State +7 (-110) vs. Vanderbilt
-Love Vandy as a team, but they are banged up and I don't think Ezeli has enough in the tank to guard Renardo Sidney right now. The home court cowbells will be in full force, and I think MSU is a buy team right now after a terrible start to the season. They don't have a big enough guy with speed to slow down Dee Bost, and Ravern Johnson's length will bother Jeffery Taylor on both ends of the court. If Sidney is good to go he should get whatever he wants inside, and the home whistles are going to go to the Bulldogs.
New Mexico State -2 (-110) vs. Boise State
-NMSU is as healthy as they've been all year, it's a tough place to play and Boise is built with guards and has struggled/will struggle against talented bigs and NMSU has a few of them starting with Gillenwater.
1/26:
Miami FL ML (+120) vs. North Carolina
-I hate that Miami has a thin frontcourt because UNC can get points there, but the HCA should help and I think UNC is a fraud. UNC has been a joke all year as they have an awful in-game coach and no PG. Meanwhile, The U is at home where good UNC teams have struggled and they have two great scorers in the backcourt that UNC can't matchup with for 40 minutes. We need fouls not to be called on the Miami FC and at home we should benefit. The U should be favored here, imo, but I'll gladly take the twenty cents.
San Diego State ML (+200) @ Brigham Young
1/25:
North Carolina State +8 (-110) @ Clemson
-Ridiculous number. NCSU will own the glass and Clemson can't shoot FTs to cover this number. Not playing the ML because this line is so far off, but I think the Wolfpack will have an advantage on the boards and Clemson won't be able to cover the game late because they're not good at FT.
Richmond ML (+130) @ Dayton
-Hate backing road times this time of year, but I don't think Dayton will be able to score efficiently on the Spiders zone. Rebounding is a major concern, but if UR can keep them off the glass then I think they will win this game. They're the best team in the A10 when they're at their best, and I think they start to prove it tonight. I like the experience advantage and I just couldn't pass up this number.
1/22:
Ohio State -1.5 (-110) @ Illinois
-Hate road chalk, but I hate this Illinois team even more. Feel like they were lucky to beat Wisconsin at home and they escaped some deficits to Sparty, too. The Bucks have a big man in Fr. Jared Sullinger who will get whoever guards him in foul trouble. I also like that they have Dallas Lauderdale to play defense against either Mike Davis or Tisdale. Once Ohio State limits those two offensive posts, they will only need to keep Illinois from hitting a ton of perimeter shots in order to win. David Lighty and Jon Diebler are good enough to outscore the Illini guards if they need to, which I don't think they will, and tOSU plays defense while the Illini do not.
St. John's -2.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati
-My Cincy fade continues as they can't score inside and their perimeter shooting is spotty at best. MSG is a very difficult place for college kids for some reason, and the Bearcats will need the 3pt shot to stay competitive against the Johnnies 2-3 zone. I know I fade Cincy a ton, USF/Syracuse/Notre Dame come to mind, but I just don't think they're good enough to see these kinds of lines on the road. The Johnnies blowout loss to Louisville helps, too.
Notre Dame -3 (-110) vs. Marquette
-I love the way MU fights, but this line is simply too short and I locked it before it jumps. Don't love it, but I think ND is better at what both teams like to do and taller so I played them. If I start feeling weird about it maybe I'll buy off, but I doubt it.
1/19:
Notre Dame -3.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati
-Cincy isn't as good as their record suggests, and they're walking into the lion's den tonight. The Irish will be ready to start a new winning streak after looking awful on Sunday @St. John's (wahoo -2) and the blowout loss @Marquette. It's gonna be tough for Cincy to keep up with the 3pt shooting from the Irish who always shoot the lights out at home, and Cincy's advantage on the interior doesn't seem like much of one considering the problems Ibrahima Thomas and Yancy Gates have scoring the basketball.
Wake Forest-Georgia Tech OVER 146.5 (-110)
-I hate to back Wake in any form or fashion, but they don't play defense and they love to shoot the 3pt shot. This should enable GT to get out and run like they did so successfully at home against UNC on Sunday night. My numbers have this 144-146, but there should be a lot of possessions here and I agree with kenpom's projection at 153. Just gotta hope WFU stays competitive for 35 minutes.
Colorado State +13 (-105) @ UNLV
1/18:
Georgia -4 (-105) vs. Tennessee
-Jump on the Tennessee fade train with me everyone! The Dawgs are a better team right now and this line is short even with Bruce Pearl on the sidelines. Their replacement is worse than a bad in-game coach who normally sits on their sidelines and there should be some good support for the Dawgs in a normally quiet building because this is a big rivalry game and the students are finally back from winter break. UGA had to deal with a tough road trip playing Vandy tight and murdering Ole Miss in Oxford, which sets them up for a good performance now that they're finally sleeping in their own beds and their ready to beat a team they massacred last year at home (I had the Dawgs). Mark Fox's team has an extremely athletic wing in Travis Leslie to slow down Scotty Hopson, a very quick backcourt to handle Melvin Goins, and they have two experienced big guys who will exploit Brian Williams and Tobias Harris on the interior. UGA plays great interior defense and block 15% of shots taken against them, so that will force Tennessee to the outside where they have struggled all season.
1/17:
Syracuse +6.5 (-105) @ Pittsburgh
-I don't buy Pittsburgh being the #4 team in the nation. I saw them live against Providence and while they were certainly the better team on the floor that night, they almost lost. They aren't a 3pt shooting team, despite boasting three guys above 40% on the season, and they need to be to bury a very talented Syracuse team. The size and length the Orange use in the 2-3 zone are going to present a lot of problems for the Panthers. The Oakland Zoo is a scary place to go, but I think the core of the Orange is experienced enough to handle it. Kris Joseph's absence is unfortunate because he can score the basketball, but he is replaceable and certainly isn't worth two points to the Orange's cause. I am playing this because I expect Syracuse to win, but I also like the insurance that these 6 1/2 points give me.
1/16:
South Florida -2 (-110) vs. Providence
-My second most profitable team of the year against a team with negative chemistry and in-fighting.
St. John's -2 (-110) vs. Notre Dame
-MSG is a terrible place for teams that rely on perimeter shooting
1/15:
Vandy pk (-110) @ Tennessee
-I think Vandy is the best team in the SEC right now and I also think Tennessee's inconsistency on the floor is made worse by Pearl's absence from the bench. Ezeli will make it tough for Brian Williams to score on the interior, Jeffery Taylor will lock down the most inconsistent stud in the nation by the name of Scotty Hopson and the 'Dores have two extremely versatile players at the 4 position to mess with Tobias Harris. They also have shown they can play a 2-3 zone this season and that will make it so the Vols can't score reliably, which is an awful combination with how well Vandy scores the rock. Taylor and SG John Jenkins will burn the cords and they will lock up a close game down the stretch. One of my most confident plays of the year, (would have been the first game this year where I played the ML instead of the points if the 'Dores were a dog), but I'm strict about flat-betting so I will only play this for a normal unit.
Dayton +7.5 (-110) @ Xavier
-Dayton's lines have been terrible all year long and for some reason Vegas hasn't adjusted. I'll play it here as XU's rotation is severely limited using only seven players for legitimate minutes. The Flyers should get out and run, even though they're still well-equipped to play at a slow pace, to wear down the only advantage XU has with its big men. Kenny Frease and Jamel McClean will probably have good nights, but UD closes out on shooters well and they should be able to keep it within this number. If I'm Brian Gregory I'm attacking XU for the entire first half either building a big lead or getting the bigs in foul trouble to basically cement a win. Too many points here like every other game this year...
Syracuse -7.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati
-Cincinnati is a fraud and Syracuse will expose them. Kirkpatrick scares me a bit because he looks like he can stroke it from the perimeter, but the 'Cats haven't seen this type of length in a zone yet this season. The 'Cuse suck at the FT line, which could burn me here, but they should get plenty of opportunities in what should be a rough game on one end and a clean one on the other. Home calls should go to the Orange all day and they will get out to a big lead. If they need FT to cover this number I'm prepared for a loss, but I think this will be a blowout.
| Missouri-Texas A&M UNDER 141 (-110) -I've been playing 1H unders so far this year when I felt the urge, but I'm considered with getting to the bonus early in this one so I don't want to give up a few possessions in order to insure myself against overtime. All in all, this will be a loss if the game is played to Mizzou's tempo. I don't see that happening especially after watching how TAMU played Washington earlier in the year at Reed Arena. They play unbelievable defense and they will control the pace, especially considering how poor Mizzou is on the road. The road woes were evident in their last game in Boulder, and it will be seen here as well. Like TAMU to win this game and I think they could win the Big XII if they had KU at home instead of playing in the Phog. I wouldn't be afraid of the look-ahead to Texas, either. | |
South Florida +13.5 (-110) @ Cincinnati
-The Bulls have been very good to me this year covering in losses to Cleveland State and UCF. Cincinnati has played one of the weakest non-conference schedules and I think this line is far too high. Cincy isn't good enough as a team to push the pace for 40 minutes and I don't think Mick Cronin will want to do that even though it would clearly benefit Cincy here. Stan Heath will slow the pace, which makes the 13.5 points look like 20 (similar to my reasoning in the SLU-Temple game on Sunday when 15.5 felt like 25) and it also requires a blowout to lose. The number is above the point when USF would stop fouling and even then that would require a team that always struggles at the line to make a ton of FTs or to sink a ton of shots. Cincy isn't that team against a tough defense like USF. The Bulls will need a good effort from Gilchrist & Famous on the interior because their guards aren't great scorers, which could be tough with Gates and Ibrahima Thomas on the interior. I think they can hold their own and make it tough for UC on the offensive end so as long as it's a battle this should be a tight game.
Villanova -4 (-110) vs. Louisville
-This line opened too short and I thought it would move a ton. It did not, but I'll stick with 'Nova because in a battle of overrated teams the visitor is far more overrated. The Wildcats are guard heavy and will be able to break the press while they're going to get more calls at home and they will shoot better there, too. Meanwhile, UL has trouble scoring enough at home as compared to the road and they will struggle here with the speed on the perimeter and Nova's length on the interior. I'm expecting Nova to get some easy baskets after breaking the press and they shoot FT well so if they can't cover the 4 then I really don't know what to say.
Seton Hall -3 (-105) @ DePaul
-The Pirates are far better than DePaul and they have the guards in Jordan Theodore and Keon Lawrence to break Oliver Purnell's press. More importantly, I don't think DePaul has the shooters on the perimeter to beat the zone. They may not even have one shooter considering they make 27.6% of their 3pt shots good for 335th in the nation. The Hall aren't a great group of players, but their coach Kevin Willard knows what he's doing and this game is one that the Pirates know they can win and they will be motivated to take charge early. SHU's heart and soul Jeremy Hazell may be back, too, which is unbelievable news if true.
Georgetown -2.5 (-103) vs. Pittsburgh
-I've been looking to fade Pitt because I don't think they're good and this is as good of a time as any. I was hoping for a -1.5 here, but I think GTown has the shooters to ice the game down the stretch. The main reason for this play is I think GU matches up well on defense with whatever Pitt wants to do. The Panthers won't win if they run tonight and I think they'll lose if they play like they used to, too. Julian Vaughn should be able to keep Gary McGhee off the glass, Chris Wright will stop Woodall off the bench or Wannamaker if he draws that assignment. The only real offensive threats for Pitt are Wannamaker and Ashton Gibbs mainly because Gilbert Brown is only consequential when he gets left wide open because their opponents can't stop those two guys. I think we see Jason Clark and Austin Freeman slowing the go-two-guys (see what I did there?) and the Pitt bench doesn't feature any scorers. Besides the HCA, this game is a must-win for GTown and I think they get it done.
Syracuse-St. John's UNDER 62 (-110, 1H)
-Avoiding full-game unders for now to avoid overtime, especially in this one because I think it will be close. Both teams will play zone and MSG isn't friendly to long-distance shooting. I think buckets will be hard to come by in the interior, and both teams are poor from the line. Syracuse shoots 64.4% and St. John's is at 69.2% when you want your team to be above 70% to be considered competent/good. Hoping we don't get into the bonus early...
1/9:
Saint Louis +15.5 (-110) @ Temple
-The Billikens lost a ton from last year's team when their top two players were arrested and dismissed from school following a sexual assault. Even without Willie Reed and Kwamane Mitchell, SLU has a lineup full of contributors. They don't have studs, but they get their scoring from everywhere and the main reason I'm playing this is because of their defense and pace. For some reason, Temple hasn't looked anywhere near what they were last year on the offensive end. They are probably equal or better on defense, but they have trouble scoring consistently and that will make it very difficult for them to cover such a huge line. Juan Fernandez is a great shooter, but he looks like he's playing for himself more than the team this season and that is throwing him and his teammates off. I think 15 1/2 points in this type of game is more like 25 in a normal-paced game, so I will play the Billikens. Rick Majerus is a great coach who knows how to prepare his team and all we really need is a slow-paced game where the Billikens don't get blown the F out.
Indiana-Northwestern OVER 140 (-110)
-Both of these teams play little defense and both need a win. I've actually marveled at the 70.6% that NW allowed Illinois to shoot in their last game and at the 60+% IU allowed Northern Iowa to hit in a tournament. While I am fearful of overs with jumpshooting teams, I think both of these teams will want to get up and down today because they see themselves winning via offense rather than defense like the good teams in this country. There should be plenty of quick, open shots taken and I think we see a ton more possessions. My numbers put this between 139 and 140, plus kenpom has 144, so seeing the 140 when I expect a ton of possessions makes me feel like it's worth it to play it.
1/8:
Texas A&M -7 (-110) @ Oklahoma
-Hate road chalk, but I'm betting this game based on the fact that the Aggies should flat out own this OU team. I don't think we'll have many opportunities to fade an awful OU team once conference play begins, so I will take my chances with the Cotton Bowl losers because of their defense. They are much better at home, but their defense should travel with them and the only guy they need to be afraid of is G/F Cade Davis. TAMU has the big guys to guard OU's stable of average forwards and an experienced backcourt. While I used to be really low on Mark Turgeon, I'm starting to realize that he has built a pretty solid group of defensive-minded players with length. They should limit Cade Davis and force the rest of the team to beat them, which I don't think they can. Seven points is a lot to lay for me, but this line should be DDs and I will mark this as a loss if it comes down to FTs late. TAMU should murder this team.
Mississippi State +4 vs. Alabama
-Simply put, Alabama is not good enough to lay this amount on the road to anyone with a pulse, and especially not to the team that's going to win the SEC West. Today is MSU's 15th game of the season, and they will finally see their two best players on the court with Renardo Sidney off the suspension and PG Dee Bost will be in his first game back. Bost adds maturity and scoring ability to the Bulldogs taking a little of the pressure off Ravern Johnson who can now go back to a scoring role that he's been so accustomed to with Bost on the floor. The returning PG should be a bit rusty, and the loss of Elgin Bailey is a concern for frontcourt depth, but I think Sidney and Augustus can limit JaMychal Green's production for the Tide and they don't have much besides him to justify laying points in Starkvegas.
Wofford +1 (-110) vs. College of Charleston
-Charleston may be the team I've won the most on so far this season, but the Wofford Terriers are a solid team and the HCA in this South Carolina battle should be relevant today. Wofford is a team that I thought could win a very strong SoCon conference pre-season, but they are going to need to win this game. CofC is lead by leading-scorer Andrew Goudelock who should have fits today with G Jamar Diggs on defense. The Terriers run their offense through F Noah Dahlman, who will also draw a tough match on defense with Antwaine Wiggins. Wiggins is more of a perimeter guy on offense, which I'm not sure he can continue his hot shooting of late. If Wiggins somehow doesn't guard Dahlman, then Noah will have a huge day on CofC's weak front court. I don't love this number, but I figured Wofford would be favored here and I think they can defend Goudelock so hopefully the HCA brings them across to the winner's circle.
1/6:
Xavier-Cincinnati UNDER 60.5 (-110, 1H)
-My numbers say 133-134 but the rivalry should help defense here and I think XU will struggle to score if Cincy doesn't let them get out and run. In the last 9 meetings the under is 6-3 with two unders losing because of OT. The average 1st half point total is 60.3 and this year's teams are nowhere near what they usually have in terms of scorers. I don't like selling points here, but taking the 1H under helps me avoid OT and generally if the game goes over in the 1H then it will go over for the game. Cincy's coach Mick Cronin should do all he can to keep Xavier from getting out and running for easy baskets, while XU wants to slow it down with what sounds like a beat up group of guys. No Jordan Crawford zapped a scorer away from the Musketeers and Tu Holloway has played well but he's not the guy to rely on in the longterm. I fear Cincy getting out in transition, but XU knows they need to force UC to make quality shots here so they will do all they can to stay in the game. The Bearcats are bad at FTs as a team hitting 65.3%, while XU is a respectable 72%. If we see the bonus early this is a loser, but I think Cincy will bail me out with a few FT misses.
1/4:
Ohio State-Iowa OVER 134 (-110)
-The Bucks are actually the slower-paced team in this one, but there will be running here. Iowa has the faster tempo and I don't think Fran McCaffery will slow it down in an effort to win this game as he knows he doesn't have a chance. He's the man in Iowa City with a plan, and that is to build a press and run team and the Bucks will love to play that style. The Hawks are a team that loved to shoot the 3pt shot even before McCaffery arrived, and they should see plenty. I think Ohio State will treat this game as a fun one as they will be running all day and working it into Jared Sullinger who Iowa has no answer for on defense. The number is pretty accurate, but I honestly don't think Iowa is going to try to win this game and instead they're going to run. Thad Matta will let his guys run and shoot, and their defense will make it tough on Iowa until they have a huge lead. Instead of playing the Bucks I'll play the total because I think it's too low with Iowa's new style of play. I hate totals and they hate me, but this warrants my 4th attempt of the season.
1/3:
Michigan State -1.5 (-110) @ Northwestern
-Simply put, I don't win when I fade/play Northwestern, but I'm trying again. Tom Izzo has had ridiculous success against the 1-3-1 making it look like an easy defense to beat. In reality it's not, but athletic teams do a ton of damage to it because it really makes them guard. Having to guard for 40 minutes on one end will lead to tired legs on the offensive end, and that's a scary proposition for a team that relies on the 3pt shot for 37.2% of their offense. I played NU last year in this game and they just couldn't stop Sparty, and I don't think this happens tonight either. I was actually reading tweets last night where Draymond Green was talking about the team studying up for NW because there was nothing to do, so I think we'll see a fired up team here. Played this last night because I knew it was jump and I felt in the worst case I could sell it back at a higher number, but I expect I'll keep it and hope my pre-season title winner to get back on the road to championship form.
Florida -3 (-110, 2H) vs. Rhode Island
-I root for URI a bit below PC and a huge amount below my alma mater, Texas, but they look awful tonight. The Rowdy Reptiles shoot a ton better at home and they only shot 7 3pt shots in the entire half. URI's press was doing a little early, but I think UF knows how to break it with their back-up PG Wilbekin, and URI's offense has become bounce-bounce-bounce 3pt shot and I don't think Jim Baron Sr. has the mind to gameplan a way to overcome the athletic disadvantages here. UF does what URI likes to do and is basically better at every position and has home court. Hope UF doesn't rest for Ole Miss in 5 days until they have it well in hand, but I think the loss to Jacksonville will have them playing hard.
1/2:
Wake Forest +10 (-102) vs. Gonzaga
-Travel is my main reason for this play considering Gonzaga played on NYE in Washington and then had to travel all the way to Winston-Salem for an early start, which has them playing at 11 a.m. PT. I expect the Zags to have trouble with their legs early, and they don't defend the 3pt line well at all. The Zags allow 37.5% 3pt shooting good for 277th in the NCAA and conversely WFU shoots 42.6% from deep putting them 5th in the country. Gonzaga should own the interior, but I'm hoping Bzdelik's offense gets some open shots for Ari Stewart and C.J. Harris.
Wisconsin +2.5 (-105) @ Illinois
Charlotte +12 (-102) @ Georgia Tech
1/1:
Dayton -1 (-110) vs. New Mexico
| -I may bet Dayton every game this year, as I've won on them against Ole Miss and their last two games against Seton Hall and George Mason so why not go for three in a row? In reality, I had UNM last year in the game and lost on a BS last second three from UD, which was funny because they were atrocious from deep (and still are) all game until the last 30 seconds. I fear UNM running a zone this year, but from what I've seen this year they haven't done much of that. As for the game, UD has no-name guards who should be able to limit what UNM can do and they don't have much on the interior. I'm basically playing the Flyers HCA here because UNM doesn't have bigs who can score reliably and they shouldn't get many easy looks with the way UD's backcourt plays defense. If UNM comes out in a zone this will probably fly under (pun intended), but if there's ever a time for UD to make perimeter shots it would be at home. UNM's great 3pt D has made them very good this year, but that's not UD's game and I think the defending NIT champions further their case for an at-large bid. | |
| Providence -1 (+100) vs. St. John's |
12/31:
Kentucky +3 (-102) @ Louisville
-I don’t root for Kentucky or like them much at all, but they are better than Louisville. The Cardinals are psyched to open their new gym against the big in-state rival, but UK dominates the state of Kentucky and I doubt the crowd is as overwhelming as people think. The state bleeds blue, and UK has shown great improvement this year. They have a dynamic player that LOU can’t cover in Terrence Jones, they are one of the best in the country at limiting turnovers on offense and they have shot the 3pt shot extremely well this year fixing their Achilles heel from last season. UL will be running the press, which if UK can solve without turning the ball over then they will be getting the open perimeter shots that they couldn’t cash in on last year. Pitino’s squad is also very banged up, and the young UK team will need to stay even-keeled to cash this one.
Charleston +11 (-108) @ Tennessee
-This line is probably correct being so high, but that’s not why I made this play. Charleston is the favorite to grab the automatic bid for the SoCon conference, at least based off of non-conference play, and I think they have some good matchups against this Tennessee team. I am disappointed that I didn’t play Belmont against them two games ago as unfortunately I was at work and never saw a line, but UT is just not good right now. They need F Scotty Hopson to score the ball to play well on offense and he’s not playing very well lately even with the recent 17-point outburst against Tennessee-Martin. Oh and yeah, UT-Martin had a lead on them in the second half. Back to Hopson, he’s a real talent but he’ll be matched up with a more talented defender with extremely long arms in Antwaine Wiggins. Wiggins blocked a ton of shots against Maryland and actually played pretty well offensively against Clemson in CofC’s most recent defeat. They played a bad 2H and lost the rivalry game (on their end not Clemson’s), but have had 9 days to gameplan for UT. I hope they go zone, but I’m not 100% comfortable that they can do that, yet Bobby Cremins used only seven players against Clemson. That makes me think he’ll try to slow the pace, which will force UT to score in the half-court (they’re not good at that) and it will limit the scoring in the game so it will make the 11 points more valuable. I simply think Charleston is a team that can go into K-ville and win this game, so I’ll take double-digit insurance and ride the team with the better scorer in G Andrew Goudelock.
| Washington State +4 (-105) @ Southern Cal -USC's backcourt will be their demise this season, especially after wasting a dominant performance from Nikola Vucevic on the interior. With the loss comes a missed opportunity for a quality win at home over a good Washington team, and I think we'll see a bit of a hangover after that. Today I like Wazzu because USC laying points is something I stay far away from because they don't play well as a favorite. Wazzu is going to play a 2-3 zone all night long and they're going to force USC to score from the perimeter. I don't think the Trojans can do that, and even then they have to somehow defend a 3-headed perimeter monster in Klay Thompson, Reggie Moore and Faisal Aden. All three aren't on the court at once usually, but they can all shoot the ball well and I actually think Casto and the rotating white guys inside can slow down Vucevic and Stepheson isn't an offensive threat. The Cougs random white bigs will take advantage of Vucevic on the offensive end, and if he gets in foul trouble then USC can't win. I think we see a full effort from Wazzu after blowing the Ucla game on Wednesday in the 2H, and it'll be tough early for USC after the OT loss. | |
Old Dominion +8.5 (-110) @ Mizzou
-To be brief, Mizzou isn't a team I like to lay points with and especially not against this ODU team. Last year ODU silenced the Mizzou offense (I actually had the under), and I actually prefer last year's scoring over this years for the gang from Columbia. Mike Anderson is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation, but his run-'n-gun offense won't be happening tonight because ODU will slow it down on both sides of the ball. I like the Monarchs zone defense against a team that doesn't shoot as well from the perimeter as they have in the past, and they will also slow the game on offense. The combination will force Mizzou to make contested shots against a tough ODU defense, and I don't think they can do that to the tune of a double-digit victory.
12/29:
Notre Dame +2 (-110) vs. Georgetown
-I like the Fightin’ Irish this year even with the departures of their stud big guy and their point guard, but I’m not sure the rest of the world agrees with me. I had Notre Dame as a 4-6 point favorite here so seeing them getting two is enough for me to play based on variation alone even if I didn’t like the Golden Domers. In essence, ND is a perimeter shooting team who you want to play at home and fade on the road. Their shooting is so impressive at home, and it comes in at such a higher percentage that only the luck of the Irish could explain what happens. Meanwhile, Georgetown has already fallen on the road @Temple and looked shaky @Mizzou and @ODU so it’s very possible that they are a similar type of team. GU doesn’t have the talented big guy who can direct the offense like they’ve had in the past, which has hurt their offensive efficiency, and they don’t have one who can get a thin frontcourt in foul trouble. The way to beat ND in their house is to hope they don’t break records from beyond the arc or to have a big guy who can score consistently in the post. GU doesn’t have the latter and their defense this year hasn’t been stellar so I think we’ll see ND get some open jumpers and if they hit them they can win this game.
| Dayton -1.5 (-108) vs. George Mason -Should have grabbed this at the open, but I’ll lay 1 ½ with a team that I think is better and has the home court. I was on Dayton on Sunday and they did not play well, but still won on the road against Seton Hall. George Mason is a hard team to quantify right now as I’ve only been involved with them once this year in a cover against Harvard, but they are an experienced group who shouldn’t wilt under the UD pressure. Regardless of their mental toughness, I think Dayton plays better basketball. GMU was criticized all last season for their lack of defense in CAA play, and this Dayton team is quicker than anyone GMU has seen this season. Another problem for the Patriots is FT shooting, which was atrocious last year and the team currently sits at only 65.5% on the season. It’s odd to me to see kenpom giving GMU an outright win on UD’s home floor by two points, but I must roll with the punches. Dayton F Chris Johnson’s groin seems like an issue that could slow him tonight, but he didn’t play much against Seton Hall either so I’m not sure how big of a loss he is. He certainly brought energy to the team in Sunday’s game, but I was more impressed with F Matt Kavanaugh’s performance on the interior. GMU’s defensive statistics suggest a man defense, which would be fine with me. I just hope GMU doesn’t play a zone because that’s something they haven’t been able to figure out. The home atmosphere should help the Flyers get this victory and I’m happy to be in for less than a possession. | ||||
|
Purdue -3.5 (-107) @ Michigan
-This Purdue team took a big hit when they lost F Robbie Hummel to his second ACL tear in as many seasons, but this is a quality basketball team without him. They are a senior-laden team who plays very tough defense and one nice thing about defense is that it travels much better than shooting. It also helps that the Boilers have the two best players on the court in JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, but the game will be won on the defensive end based on how well the visitors defend PG Darius Morris. Morris has taken off in the beginning of his sophomore season, but he hasn’t seen defense like he’ll see today from Matt Painter’s crew. While Michigan’s 10-2 record looks nice from outside, they haven’t beaten a tournament team yet this season. Purdue’s schedule has been much better, but seeing Richmond’s zone should have them better prepared for UM’s 1-3-1 than they were the first time. To me, Michigan is missing a second star player and that will keep them out of the NCAA tournament this year. Morris is a good creator, but I’m not sure he can score enough by himself to keep the Wolverines in this game. The 2pm start is a weird one, but I think it will hurt the home team more than it will help the road team as they will be missing a lot of the students that normally make the environment so daunting. UM will take their fair share of 3pt shots in this one and will probably make a good percentage, but I don’t think they have anyone who can stop Johnson on the interior and they don’t have enough talented offensive players to overcome Purdue’s defense.
12/26:
Richmond +2 (-110) @ Seton Hall
-I feel bad for the Hall as I've been fading them all season long. In my opinion, this will be their toughest matchup because they will have to try to score consistently against a very disciplined zone. Seton Hall simply doesn't have the outside shooters to combat the efficient Richmond offense, and a banged up Herb Pope means that they will struggle to score inside and I just don't think the Hall deserves to be favored here. I will look to play them when the Big East starts, but they have played some great mid-major competition and UR is too good.
12/25:
Baylor -2 (-110) vs. Florida State
Washington State -1 (-110) vs. Butler
Hawaii -1.5 (-110) vs. Mississippi State
12/24:
Southern Miss -4 (-107) vs. Colorado State
-The Golden Eagles are one of my darlings so far this season, winning in a tough environment at Cal after hanging with Ole Miss all game long before losing my cover by 1/2 point. I avoided them yesterday simply because SLU's tempo messes with good teams and it did yesterday as So. Miss only began to cover in the last 40 seconds of the game. They avoided the rematch with Ole Miss, which I would have definitely been involved with, and I had to research what CSU likes to do. I'm hearing they like to speed the game up, which will be good for the Eagles as they will slow them down and CSU may have tired legs with this being the last day of the tournament. In addition to that, their two leading scorers are forwards and that matches up well with a deep So. Miss frontcourt. I also think highly of HC Larry Eustachy, so I almost have to play this team when they're playing middle of the road competition and only laying a bit more than a possession.
12/23:
Mississippi State -9 (-105) vs. San Diego
-Mississippi State is a team I was high on going into the season, although I knew the early part of the season was going to be a problem because they had to adjust to the loss of Jarvis Varnado while missing PG Dee Bost and blue-chip recruit F Renardo Sidney. Sidney is an NBA prospect who surprised me by not jumping after sitting out his entire freshman year, but he’s clearly got some work to do. He was suspended for yesterday’s game, but is back today and I think he will exploit an awful USD front court. MSU is so much better than the team they’re facing today, but the question is whether they can play together or not. They played one good half yesterday against Wazzu before allowing the Cougs to go on a 14-0 run early in the 2H and then they got blown out of the water. Today they are the much better team and they have the opportunity to avenge that loss against a terrible team. I expect USD to try to slow the game down, but they are so bad on offense that they should make a struggling defense look better. The Bulldogs are better at every position on the floor, and what they really need to do is play good defense on the USD guards because Kodi Augustus and Sidney should both take care of business down in the paint. I absolutely hate laying this many points, but I’m expecting to lose if MSU doesn’t blow this team out of the water. If they don’t, they may be put on Utah’s level of no-bets because this will be the second time burning me in a week. They should play well today and even a decent performance should get them a double-digit victory.
| Baylor -3 (-108) vs. Washington State -Baylor is going to challenge for the Big XII crown this season and they are one of the most athletic teams in the nation. They combine length with speed and that will make it very difficult for Wazzu to get their uncontested perimeter shots that they need to score efficiently. Klay Thompson is a great shooter on the Cougs, but the Baylor zone surprisingly doesn’t allow for good distance shooting as their opponents only connect on 29.4% of their 3pt attempts. While BU’s schedule has been weak, the way to beat a zone is with perimeter shooting and the BU length is going to influence a lot of shots here no matter how talented the opposing shooters are. Playing yesterday will hurt the Cougs legs on the distance shots and I think that benefits BU because they score a lot of points in the paint using their length and remarkable depth. Baylor is the better FT shooting team, and they are so much deeper than Wazzu so laying only a possession seems too short to me. While they didn’t impress in the loss to Gonzaga, they don’t have to deal with the interior size in this one and I think this line is short because of the way Wazzu handled Gonzaga at home earlier in the year. | |
| Dayton +8 (-103) @ Seton Hall -Somehow missed getting this at 9.5 because it moved to 9, so I waited and finally remembered to check back and it was already at 8. Rumor has it that Herb Pope will be limited tonight, but the main reason I’m playing this game is because they don’t have a legitimate scorer without Jeremy Hazell. He had wrist surgery and it’s within his timetable to return, but I don’t think he will be in the lineup tonight. Even if he is, I think this UD squad can cover this number because they are the better team. UD won the NIT last year and didn’t lose much off their squad. They are a little weak on the interior, but even a healthy Pope wouldn’t be able to take full advantage because he’s undersized. The Flyers don’t give up easy baskets and their rotation is impressive. There should be some great defense from the guard position on both sides of the ball, and we may see a fast-paced game considering SHU’s HC Kevin Willard came from the Rick Pitino school of coaching. Even with the faster pace, I don’t think the Hall can get the easy buckets that they would need to cover this number. It looks like everyone in the world likes Dayton here, but that’s because this line is far too high for a Christmas Break game. I actually made UD the favorite here, which is a tad crazy, but this line shouldn’t be anywhere above a possession and I’m getting almost three. | |
South Florida +9 (-109) @ Cleveland State -The Vikings are coming off a tough loss to West Virginia, which was their first blemish of the season. I’m starting to think that D’Aundray Brown may be suiting up tonight because the line is so big. While Brown is their do-everything player, the return of Augustus Gilchrist will be a much more important part of the game. Gilchrist brings an offensive game to the Bulls interior that they don’t have with Jarid Famous. There has been a little drama inside with them, as Gilchrist is still only probable to return to the court and Famous missed some time a little while ago, but they are the reason why USF can push the Vikes to the brink tonight. To put it simply, CSU struggles rebounding the basketball. They struggled with it last year and now they face a team with two solid big men and some guards who rebound the ball well. While the Bulls struggle to score, CSU plays a slow pace so it’s not like USF will have to get to 70 to cover this number. The HCA should be decent because it always is when smaller conference teams take on the BCS conferences, but it is Winter Break and I’m not sure all the rowdy fans will be around. USF has hit the road a lot this year, and I think that will help them in this one. CSU is the better team because of Norris Cole in the backcourt, but their inability to rebound successfully will allow for USF to get second chance points and it will also limit opportunities for the Vikings on the offensive end. This may be a bit of a let-down for CSU after suffering their first loss on the season, but I’m sure HC Gary Waters has been preaching not to let WVU beat them twice. |
North Texas +8 (-102) @ Louisiana State
-The Mean Green are the best team in the SBC and this is a big game for them even though it’s against a weak BCS school. LSU beat me once this year at home covering late against Houston, but this is a much different and far superior team getting one point less from a bad team. UNT seems to be clear of injuries, which is a good sign because this line is far too high. The Bayou Bengals have struggled immensely this season without Bo Spencer at the point, and although Andre Stringer has impressed me so far with his ability to knock clutch FTs down I don’t think he’s on the same level. LSU surprised me with how well they played against Wichita State, but it’s possible that the late 3pt shot they allowed will produce a hangover in this one. The home court should treat the Tigers well, but I doubt their fan base is excited about UNT coming to town although it will be a very good game if they can stay in it. I just think UNT is a far better team with a go-to scorer in Tristan Thompson and a solid rebounder in George Odufuwa, so heading on the road will be a test that they will pass. Should be a low-scoring game if they play LSU’s tempo, which also would help UNT get the cover because it will be very difficult for LSU to extend the lead if the game’s played in the 60s.
Indiana -4.5 (-108) vs. Northern Iowa
-This line is based off UNI’s success last year in the tournament compared to Indiana’s struggles. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, this UNI team is nothing like the one that took out #1 KU last March. They lost the core of their team, which was their big men, and their only remaining talent from that team that concerns me with this play is Kwadzo Ahelegbe. Ahelegbe is a very good player who did a good job penetrating the Syracuse 2-3 zone in my earlier bet against this team, but IU plays man-to-man and I think the home crowd will put them over the top. Assembly Hall is an awesome atmosphere for the home team, and it shows with how well the Hoosiers play there compared to on the road. They rely a lot on the familiar sights to shoot the ball from outside, and they will need that tonight. UNI will limit possessions so the young Hoosiers will need to take advantage of their opportunities. IU has better guards than UNI and neither team has much to speak of on the interior. I hate laying points, but the atmosphere combined with a more talented team makes me comfortable in putting my money behind Tom Crean’s squad. I had this line between 7 and 9 points, so I’ll lay the 4 ½ and hope IU can quell a late rally from UNI.
Southern Cal +9 (-101) @ Tennessee
Almost played them against Pitt and they get the great win, then they lose inexplicably at home to Oakland on a clear let-down and then go to Charlotte with a chip on their shoulder and they blow a game late. It's going to be very hard for them to cover this type of number against a team with quality bigs, but they are way more athletic than USC. USC, you could argue, is in a let-down situation after the near victory in the Phog, but their performance there was so good that it makes me think they can handle an easier atmosphere. Tennessee is never good at FTs, so you have that aid at the end of the game, but I'm not sure USC has the offense to come back if they fall down early. It's really simple if you're Tennessee. Give the ball to Scotty Hopson and let him do his thing because he's a dynamic scorer and clearly their best option. I don't know if Pearl is smart enough to realize that, but that is all they need to do to win games. As far as matchups go, my concern about USC's lack of depth and needing to have their two bigs out there is pretty much a wash considering the lineups that Pearl uses. Brian Williams deserves to be out there, but playing his son in meaningful situations when he clearly makes it 4-on-5 on offense will be a huge help for the Trojans. Vucevic won't get embarrassed like he did in the Phog, and they can use him on the offensive end to get some easy buckets after the showing on Saturday. If Pearl were smart, he would go small and play quickly, but maybe the road team will set the tempo here. Kevin O'Neill is a good enough coach to know that he can't win running with them, but can the Trojans play zone? I think they will/can and that will be a huge part in winning this game nevermind covering the spread. Maymon's presence will likely slow the game down a bit, which plays into USC's hands. This game would be a major concern if it was closer to 3 or something that would force USC to win the game in order to cover, but at the number I was expecting it looks okay. You're right that this game is probably going to come down to the 3pt shot, and Tennessee sitting at 31% won't get it done. They don't have anybody shooting over 33% from deep averaging more than 1.5 attempts per game. To me, the revenge for the loss game would have been Charlotte, and it actually looked like it for a while until Tennessee just stopped scoring. The Niners showed the world that the blueprint to beating UT is to slow the game down and force them to make shots, which I don't think they can do. USC simply can't fall behind early and expect to come back, so I hope to god that they will play zone despite "mostly man" statistics so far this season.
Northwestern +3 (-105) @ St. John's
Again I'm going back to the well with a 3pt shooting team in MSG, which I don't remotely like, but this is the type of game that NU will need to win to make the NCAA tournament. The Johnnies were fortunate to escape the grasp of the Davidson Wildcats, who only shot 39% from deep. Meanwhile, the top 3pt shooting team in the land will be well-rested after the blowout win compared to what should be tired legs on SJU's side after getting pushed to the brink in the late game last night. St. John's HCA is not a concern for me, and this NW team will make it very tough for the home team to score with their 1-3-1 defense. SJU has lost 2 of their last three and they were to far worse teams, so I'll take my chances on a NW win here or at least trying to keep it within a possession late.
12/20:
| Davidson +9 (-101) @ St. John's -SJU has never had a huge following at MSG, and I don't expect it to start now with the holidays next door and all the students should be gone. Meanwhile, Davidson has a better coach who knows this game is big to try and re-establish his program now that the Steph Curry era is over. SJU is allowing opponents to shoot 39% from the 3pt line, which is very poor. Davidson made me money in the past on 3pt shooting, but I'm not sure if that's what they want to do this year as they're only shooting 32% from deep so far. The Johnnies are bad at the FT line again, and Davidson is solid as a team at 70%, so advantage Davidson there if it comes down to the last few minutes.I also like that Davidson played in MSG last year against Cornell and shot pretty well. While being a very young team, they return two guys (McKillop and Kuhlman) who went 9/13 from deep in that game. While I don't expect 69.2% shooting from deep, I think they can stay in the game and some late 3pt shots should cement the cover. | |
North Carolina State +1.5 (-101) vs. Arizona
-Tough travel for UA coming across the country and it's going to be even tougher when they have to play in front of one of the better crowds in the nation. This is Sidney Lowe's last chance to save his job, and I think this is his best team. They matchup very well with this UA team who isn't great at much. Both conferences are going to be down this year, so it's a huge game for NCSU to try to get some non-conference candy on their record. No Tracy Smith is a concern, but the rookies around him should feed off the home crowd and Scott Wood can bury UA with some clutch perimeter shots.
12/18:
St. Mary's-Long Beach State OVER 146 (-110)
-LBSU runs all game and the Gaels shoot so well from 3pt land. Should see plenty of open shots for SMC, and LBSU will get plenty on their own. A little concerned with the neutral site, but that may help LBSU stay in it longer, which should help the over.
Kansas State ML (-115) vs. Florida
-Two teams I thought would be F4 teams pre-season, but I'm thinking only one of them has a legitimate shot. While this game is in Florida, it's not in the hardwood version of the Swamp and that's a major problem for the Gators. UF makes their living with pressure defense and perimeter shooting, which are both helped by screaming fans at home. I simply don't trust this team to do that on the road here and that's what they'll need to do to beat a more talented KSU team. The 'Cats are humbled everyday by their coach, and they already passed a road test in a much tougher environment in Pullman earlier in the season. While Sunrise, FL shouldn't be easy for the visitors, K-State has a major advantage on the interior and that's where games are won. They have better perimeter shooters and a very deep frontcourt, which is the main reason why I'm playing them.
Mississippi State +5.5 (-110) vs. Virginia Tech
-Another mismatch here on the interior, this time favoring the Bulldogs. The game's not in Cassel Coliseum, which would make this line reasonable, but it's in the Bahamas and VT just looks run down. With a talented roster last year they should have made the tournament last year, but their invisible non-conference schedule kept them out. While I think they still deserved it, HC Seth Greenberg went nuts making an impossible OOC schedule that may keep his team out because they're already beat up by it. Malcolm Delaney, their MVP, is banged up and they're already down a few role players who would really help them against this MSU team. The Bulldogs have a major advantage on the interior, which is where VT is vulnerable, and stud recruit Renardo Sidney is eligible for his first game. He'll be a little rusty, and they're missing Dee Bost due to an academic suspension, but this is too many points for a neutral venue with a significant interior advantage on MSU's side.
Florida State-Loyola Marymount UNDER 72 (-110)
-Degenerate play? Maybe, but this is a huge number probably with all the chasers playing the over with their last chance of the night. A pretty poor day for me going 1-2 despite my leans finishing 4-3, but this is a ton of points for a poor FT shooting team. I get it being high considering fouling, but I think FSU will pull away. They showed the zone look that made it very difficult for LMU to even get shots off before the clock expired, and I think they'll use that to break this one open and run the clock out to escape with a W. My projection on this game was 133, and this number would give me 131 for the game so i'll buy the difference as I think LMU will struggle to score in the final few minutes.
12/17:
Utah -2.5 (-110) vs. Boise State
-The Utes have one of the greatest HCA’s in the entire NCAA landscape and I don’t buy the Boise State Broncos being favorites on a neutral court when they should really struggle with Utah’s big men. Truthfully, I was trying to avoid this game after getting burned last Friday by this same Utah team when they traveled to Ann Arbor to play Michigan and got embarrassed, but this line is just not where it should be. Utah will certainly struggle with their inexperienced backcourt, but the HCA should do a fine job of covering that up tonight. Will Clyburn is a tough matchup for Boise considering his size and speed along with his perimeter shooting touch, and he will be the secondary concern for the visitors as 7-footer David Foster will have to garner the most attention. Foster and his understudy Jason Washburn are going to make it very tough for Boise to hit the offensive glass effectively, and they will also threaten Boise’s interior defense. Foster is the scoring threat, but Washburn can work as a garbage man when spelling Foster and I don’t think Boise can handle either of those two. Boise’s tallest player is 6’8” and Utah’s hybrid player is Jay Watkins who is also 6’8” and very athletic. Basically the Broncos are going to struggle with the height of Utah and the home crowd is going to make a huge difference. Originally I thought we’d see this line between six and ten points, so I’ll play the 2.5 and hope the guards do a better job limiting turnovers.
12/12:
La Salle +9.5 (-110) vs. Villanova
-Simply put, the line is too big. While I did pick Villanova to win the Big East, I'm starting to think their guard play isn't as good as I expected. They are really missing Scottie Reynolds and his ability to put the ball in the basket as no one else on that team looks like they want the responsibility to score in the tough moments. La Salle is very athletic and the small gym should help throw off some 'Nova shots and maybe keep them on the ropes instead of allowing the TKO early. I like that the Explorers can exploit the Nova interior defense with Aaric Murray, and I just pray the La Salle guards play within themselves and don't turn the ball over a million times like they did last year. This line is too big and should drop, so I grabbed the 9.5 after seeing it open at 10.
Boston College +8 (-105) @ Maryland
-New environment for BC's new coach in his first ACC game, but the Eagles are a good matchup for a Maryland team that struggles to score. The Terps are atrocious at the FT line and rely on sophomore F Jordan Williams to do most of their scoring. He'll meet his match when senior F Josh Southern defends him tonight. Southern has the bulk and the experience to make Williams work this evening, and I think the Terps struggles at point guard will make it very difficult to defend Reggie Jackson who is the most electrifying player on the BC squad. BC's experience is very impressive, and they have some outside shooters in Biko Paris and Joe Trapani. I just don't think Maryland's HCA can make this an accurate line, and even in a foul game late I don't think the Terps can ice it with their FT struggles.
Southern Mississippi +3 (-105) @ California
-Hate the travel, hate a lot about this play, but there aren't many chances where I can fade Cal before these lines correct themselves. This Bears team is awful, and the Golden Eagles have a huge advantage with interior scoring along with better guards than Cal does. The Bears have a great HCA, but that's not enough to overcome the skill gap here. Expect a lot of points in the paint for the visitors.
12/11:
Washington-Texas A&M OVER 150 (-110)
-Before the season I was looking to play OVERs with Texas A&M, but they started off with a boatload of teams who like to play extremely slowly. This is a good spot that offers a little value, especially because the A&M crowd at Reed Arena should be off the wall. They have great school spirit and their crowd always comes to play, which they will need to stay in the game with the Huskies. Washington's defense looks much improved from last year, but the Aggies play great basketball at home. My only concern is Washington blowing the Ags out and TAMU resorting to perimeter shots which are not their strength. Think we see plenty of fast break points here, and I can't see this number dropping.
Oklahoma State -3 (-110) vs. Missouri State
-Playing this line because the HCA for the Pokes is worth this number alone. While I don't love Okie State's team this year, they are a world better at home and this Missouri State team is one player who I think Travis Ford can stop. Will look into buying this back, but wanted to grab it overnight before it moves above a possession.
Wisconsin +1.5 (-103) @ Marquette
-Will be looking to fade Marquette against all teams that go inside to score and can rebound. Don't think MU has the shooters to beat that like they did in the past. Still like the Eagles team as an underdog, but not against this Wisconsin team.
12/10:
Utah +8 (-106) @ Michigan
-The Utes aren’t going to be great this year because some of their better players feuded with Coach Boylen and left the team. He preaches a strong “you’re either with us or not” philosophy and clearly that didn’t work with a few people to the point where three potential starters transferred away. What remained was a talented front court with absolute trees inside. One of them, Foster, is a good scorer, while the other is a great defender finishing in the top10 last season in blocks per game. The Wolverines are a team built on the perimeter, and they will struggle to stop the Utes bigs. They will shoot deep threes all night long, but most of the misses should be rebounded by Utah and if UM doesn’t shoot the lights out it will be tough to cover this number. I’m a bit concerned about the Utes getting the ball into their big guys with their young backcourt and considering they are redshirting their only pure PG recruit. Michigan was blown out last year in Utah even with a huge performance from Manny Harris. I don’t think they can get the 26 and 9 production that Harris gave them last year from anyone on this roster, and they will struggle to keep Utah off the offensive glass. I quickly saw this line before I guessed it so I’m guessing that affected my decision-making on guessing it between 4 and 6, but in reality this should be closer to a possession than DDs. Utah is markedly worse on the road compared to their home court advantage, but they play very tough defense and I’m not sure UM can take advantage of it to get easy buckets. Couple all of that with Coach Boylen returning to the state of Michigan after serving as an assistant twice at Michigan State (once under Izzo) and at least one of his players from Detroit wanting to show that UM missed him, and we’ll see a great effort from the Utes. I’m also not afraid to say that I thought Michigan would finish in the bottom tier of the conference, so I’m excited getting to fade them against a team that should be able to get easy baskets and still being able to let the game come down to late fouling with a great chance at covering.
12/9:
Butler -1 (-110, 2H) @ Xavier
-Liked Butler before this game began and they had a big momentum swinger at the end of the half with the foul and Shelvin Mack making both free throws. Huge coaching advantage on the visitor's sideline, and I don't think Xavier can reliably score if they are trying to kill clock. Tu Holloway is the only guy that can create his own shot, and the Butler defense looked stingy in the first half. Obviously the Bulldogs are going to need to make some shots, but they had plenty of good looks and a bad shooting half won't let me avoid getting them +7 for the game.
12/8:
Missouri -4 (-110) vs. Vanderbilt
-I really like this Vandy team, but they are weak at point guard and that will be a major problem for them against the Missouri pressure. The Tigers lost a heartbreaker to Georgetown before jumping out to a huge lead against Oregon until their legs became the issue and they let the Ducks back into the game. The six days of rest after that close win in Eugene should get this team healthy and ready to play a full 40 minutes at their tempo. The tempo should make it very hard for Vandy’s sharp-shooting duo of Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins to get in a rhythm, although they should get their fair share of open shots. The open shots may come, but the scoring opportunities should come at a premium because Vandy has a major hole at the point. Brad Tinsley and Kyle Fuller have been competing for minutes, but they will both have real problems with the all-out pressure and the big guys should struggle, too. Festus Ezeli and Steve Tchiengang are scary on the interior with their shot-blocking ability, but they will be forced to move a lot tonight and I’m not sure they will be able to sit down low considering the versatility of Justin Safford and Laurence Bowers. Safford and Bowers will force the Vandy bigs outside, which will allow for easy buckets on the interior until the ‘Dores switch to the 2-3 zone. From that point on, Mizzou will use the friendly home rims to make some perimeter shots. Kim English, Michael Dixon and Marcus Denmon can all stroke it from deep while the Pressey brothers add an element I haven’t yet quantified for this team. Basically the Tigers depth will be a major factor, and the HCA should make this line much higher than where it currently sits.
San Diego State -4 (-110) @ California
-Cal is one of my “play against” teams, while the Aztecs are one of my “play on” teams and I will do that whenever I can. The Golden Bears lost all of their scoring threats and have replaced their studs with JUCO players that can’t play well against this quality opponent. The home court should help, but SDSU has the length to make it tough on the Bears to score and they have the experience not to let the road game in a tough environment fool them. I prefer SDSU at every position on the floor, and it’s a mistake to not buy this team when they’re laying a short number against a team they are so much better than. Coach Montgomery knows what he’s doing, but Steve Fisher on the other sideline will have his boys ready for a fight. SDSU is playing for seeding in the NCAA tournament at this point in the season trying to improve their non-conference record as much as they can before they compete for a MWC title (which is a more impressive feat this year than winning the Pac 10), while Cal is trying to learn how to play as a unit. I hate road chalk, but these teams are in two very different classes and if the Aztecs bring it tonight they will win handily. If they only play okay they should win this game by DDs, and even if they play badly they should still cover this number.
Arkansas +2.5 (-103) vs. Seton Hall
-Made Arkansas the favorite here and I really don’t understand the 4 that was thrown out to the point where I didn’t play it wondering if it would go higher. It didn’t, and I missed the 3 (which is bad on my part), but I still think the Hogs are the better team here. The game being in Louisville doesn’t do much for travel from each side, but my main focus is on Seton Hall’s inability to score points. Senior SG Jeremy Hazell’s injury is a major problem for the Pirates because their offense can’t sustain itself without him. He was their clutch shooter from the perimeter and he was used at the end of games to convert late leads into victories. Without him, the Hall is left with defensive-minded guards and undersized forwards. While Arkansas isn’t the strongest team in the world, they have a deadly shooter in G Rotnei Clarke who can put the Pirates in big holes quickly if he gets off to a good start. Head Coach John Pelfrey knows a bit about offense playing for Eddie Sutton and coaching on his staff along with Billy Donovan’s, and the screen game he uses for Clarke allows his shooter to get open looks. On the interior, I’m excited to see what WIU transfer Delvon Johnson can do tonight against an undersized frontcourt after posting two double-doubles in his last three games. Johnson, along with Marshawn Powell, should be able to have some success on the interior against the Hall and that should keep SHU from getting second chances. The Hogs should win this game, but I can’t see them getting blown out by a team that struggles to score. New coach Kevin Willard should realize that it’s a bad idea to run with Arkansas because that will lead to open shots for Rotnei Clarke. With a slower-paced game with less possessions, we will be able to see SHU’s offensive struggles because they won’t be getting the easy buckets they would in transition. A good game from Clarke will put the Pirates in a huge hole that I don’t think they escape. If Clarke doesn’t play well, then the score will be low and it will make it tough for SHU to close it out considering their poor FT shooting. Every way I think this game will be competitive with only Arkansas having the chance to win this game in a blowout, so I’ll ride the dog that in my mind should be favored by more than a possession.
12/7:
Michigan State -1.5 vs. Syracuse
-Again I'm going to stick by my pre-season prediction of Sparty winning the national championship even with their two losses to star the season. Duke is clearly the best team in the nation and Sparty stayed with them all night in the toughest place to play in college basketball. This impresses me more than anything, as I thought they'd get rolled, but they're much better than Syracuse. The 'Cuse run Boeheim's vaunted 2-3 zone and have a ton of length, but good shooting ruins these zones and Sparty is the team for that. They have four guys on the floor at a time who can all fill it up from deep. Kalin Lucas, Korie Lucious, Durrell Summers and my darkhorse 1st team All-American Draymond Green can all spot up and shoot it while they hit the glass better than most teams. Izzo's bunch has the speed to matchup with the most athletic teams in the country, and in this game that should lead to some easy buckets when they beat the Orange down the floor to score before they can set up the zone. Meanwhile, the Orange are going to struggle scoring points this year and they will be facing one of the stingiest man-to-man teams in the country. They have an advantage on the interior, but their bigs aren't talented enough to consistently score to the point where I fear their advantage so a basic pick 'em game is enough for me to take my eventual national champion over a talented squad in rebuilding mode.
12/4:
| Rhode Island-Providence OVER 154 (-110) -First total play of the year, but I like it a lot. Both of these teams push the pace and PC plays zero defense. I'm rooting for the Friars, but lean to the points because this game is going to be very competitive. PC is going to be very bad this year and I actually think URI could be in the tournament finally. The Friars like to run to get open perimeter shots in transition, and I think the home court will help them score while URI shouldn't have much trouble themselves. My biggest fear is actually a URI blowout sending this game under so I certainly would advise playing the points, but the only way PC wins this game is if there are high numbers on the scoreboard | |
| Southern Mississippi +4.5 (-105) @ Ole Miss -The Golden Eagles are one of the under-the-radar teams that have jumped out to a great start. In today's game against Mississippi, they are the little brother school that can't wait to play the state university because they've always felt illegitimate. In today's contest, they have an advantage in coaching and in the frontcourt, which is exactly what you want in college basketball. Ole Miss PG Chris Warren is going to do well today, but if a stable of good but not great guards can contain him then the Eagles will have a good chance at winning rather than covering this number. |
-Huge rivalry game in the Land of Enchantment, and I like the home team. NMSU isn't a great squad, but they rebound the ball well and UNM is weak in the frontcourt. The UNM guards can do some damage here, but they aren't a great shooting team and they're a team I want to fade when they're away from the Pit. This is enough for the Aggies to be competitive and not win, but I think they can fight this one until the end as long as they get off to a good start. The great comeback and close loss to UTEP earlier in the week should have them focused.
12/3:
Georgia -3.5 (-102) vs. UAB
-This line is stupid and I’m forced to play it. UAB lost a ton in their FC last year when Elijah Millsap declared for the NBA draft after his junior season and didn’t get selected. HC Mike Davis wasn’t prepared for that, and it shows with the team he’s built for this season showing a huge void on the interior. He has some talent there, but the talent is still young and still has a long way to go to compete with the ability of Trey Thompkins and Jeremy Price. Even UAB’s guards aren’t very talented, considering what they’ve had in years prior. Their little 5’8” PG is their sparkplug who can be neutralized by the various speedy defenders Mark Fox can throw at him. The one matchup advantage for UAB is their new freshman Purifoy who can play anywhere from the 2 to the 4 depending on what Davis wants to do. I expect UAB to go small and try to take advantage of a speed advantage when Price and Thompkins are on the floor, but that shouldn’t work too well because the two UGA bigs are adept at playing at a high pace. I haven’t even mentioned the most flashy Bulldog, Travis Leslie, who will probably defend Purifoy on the offensive end. If he can slow Purifoy and contribute a little on the backboard, I think UGA wins this game. If he can score like he’s shown he can, they will win this going away. The home crowd should be interested as there’s no football interference, and this will be a good win for UGA at home. This line should be at 6 or above, so I’m in at 3.5 hoping the backdoor stays closed.
12/2:
Charleston -5.5 (-110) vs. Davidson
-I backed Charleston on Sunday when they gave UNC all the ‘Heels could handle in Chapel Hill. The Cougars also pushed Maryland to the brink in the season opener, which sets up for them to handle Davidson at home tonight. The line is where I was expecting it/hoping to play it and it was on the low side of what I was thinking. The Cougars aren’t a team that can blow people out, but they are very solid all around. This Davidson team is nothing like they were a few years ago in the Steph Curry era, and I think they still get credit for it despite being much weaker. They have some good 3pt shooters, especially Bob McKillop’s son Brendan, but on the road they are going to need to establish an inside game that I don’t really think they have when Antwaine Wiggins is running around swatting weak interior attempts. All of this has been said without mentioning Andrew Goudelock who can score with the best of the country. I’m not sure Davidson has an answer for him, and I don’t expect their perimeter shooting to be as good in a hostile environment as it has been in the past.
12/1:
Richmond +3.5 (-110) @ Old Dominion
-This game should be a battle, but I like the road team here because their style of play will make it very difficult for ODU to get easy baskets. Richmond is coming off a huge victory against Purdue, and a lot of how they won that game is why I’m making this play today. A good team in Purdue shot 30% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc, which is really where teams can beat the Spiders. St. Mary’s was the absolute worst matchup for them last year in the NCAA tournament because they shoot the lights out from 3, but I’m not afraid of ODU doing the same. ODU struggles enough at the FT line without a hand in their face, so covering the line late with FTs will be tough even with the short line. Getting this over a possession is fine for me because I love having my money behind returning A10 Player of the Year Kevin Anderson. To win this game handily, ODU will need to shoot well from deep and while they are at home I doubt we see a Northwestern-like performance tonight. ODU is certainly a good team, but I think the Spiders are better and they have the perfect defense to slow a very talented squad.
Florida -3 (-107) @ Central Florida
-Normally I wouldn’t play this game, but I’ve been convinced with laying only a possession. This UF team is my pick to win the SEC and pre-season I had them as a F4 team so I will play them at this price. UCF is a gadget team that needs a quick pace to get their points in transition. I won a wager on USF +7.5 a couple of weeks ago in this same venue, and although it was rockin’ I don’t think they were much better than a bad Big East team. UCF scored a ton with their 5’6” G A.J. Rompza because USF either forgot to cover him or he was quick enough to get open. Rompza will meet his maker with Irving Walker who is quick enough (or quicker) to stay with Rompza and he won’t be anywhere near the defensive liability that people think he is. The Knights HCA will be impressive, but UF is an experienced team with tons of depth. UCF has Rompza and then the better of the two Jordan sons, Marcus, to score the ball because they won’t get much on the interior with the established frontline of Vernon Macklin, Alex Tyus and the newcomer Patric Young. This UF team is worlds better at home, and I think that is a part of the line today, but their blowout loss at home to Ohio State has woken this team up. I had them on Sunday when they beat Florida State in Tallahassee straight up, and their performance there (even with a hiccup that got the ‘Noles back into the game late) makes me very confident that they can win this game. A win in a raucous environment is a tall order in college hoops, but I think this is a great spot to take a chance when I have the solid Gators FT shooters at the end of the game to lock the game and the cover up tightly.
Georgia Tech +5.5 (-110) @ Northwestern
-I loved GT last year, actually played them twice while I was in Vegas for the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament where I bet 10x my regular unit last year and fortunately finished 4-2. They covered against Oklahoma State as a dog, but failed to cover against Ohio State when they had plenty of opportunities. Aside from that story, this Yellow Jackets team is far different and much worse than they were last year. Their strength last year was their big men, but it’s almost non-existent now with Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors both off to the NBA draft before their eligibility was exhausted. GT returns a lanky 7-footer who plays a soft style of basketball, but he can probably matchup well with NW with his length. Simply put, NW struggles with athletic teams and GT is one of the most athletic in the country. They are led by a stable of talented guards who haven’t reached their potential yet, but I think Chicago native Iman Shumpert has a huge night tonight. He’s been a mess in his career at GT, especially considering how people think he could be a lottery pick, but this is the type of matchup a guard-heavy lineup dreams about. I fear the Jackets jacking up a ton of 3s tonight because NW’s 1-3-1 zone will allow for that, but at the same time their bevy of guards should mean they can break through the zone well and get to the basket. They’ll need to finish tonight on one end and stay disciplined on the defensive side making sure to use their length to get in the faces of Crawford/Shurna/Juice.
Houston +9 (-107) @ Louisiana State-Too many points for a team that's struggling. It may be the night of playing road teams getting too many points, but oh well UH has the players to stay in this one all night long and it should be much lower scoring than the previous Penders regime.
11/28:
| Charleston +14 (-105) @ North Carolina -Until UNC shows me they can beat quality teams by two touchdowns, I will be against them. This same CofC team upset the 'Heels in Charleston last year, and while I don't see that coming tonight I think this is a battle all night with Andrew Goudelock shooting from deep and the length of Wiggins affecting some shots on the defensive end. A lot can be drawn off of the close game they played with Maryland earlier in the season, but the Terps aren't a great team. What made me the most impressed was handling the environment, which gives them some help for what lies ahead in Chapel Hill. UNC is more talented, but if their bigs don't dominate this game then I'm not sure UNC can cover. Harrison Barnes looks like a polished player, but he can't score by himself and the lack of perimeter shooting is going to make it very tough for them to beat ACC teams by this much. Florida +5 (-110) @ Florida State -The Gators are my selection to win the SEC, and I think they are far more talented than the 'Noles. FSU has had problems at PG for years, and that same sort of thing exists today. They have a very talented swingman in Chris Singleton who should be an All-ACC player at the end of the season, but he's more of a defensive stopper and finisher at the rack. Singleton's jumper was a major flaw last year because he took the deep shots with little success, and I think Billy Donovan is smart enough to have his guys give him space on the perimeter instead of allowing him to drive. Along with Singleton's perimeter struggles, the Noles aren't great FT shooters and they lost a lot when F/C Solomon Alabi went to the NBA a year early. While he wasn't extremely polished, he was a huge body inside for rebounds and blocks while also contributing as maybe their best FT shooter. The Gators come to Tallahassee angry about the nationally-televised blowout, but it won't be easy. They are far worse on the road than they are at home, but they are very deep this year and I don't think FSU has the Jared Sullinger-type player to exploit them on the interior. It should be a dogfight, which makes me feel better about having a 5-point cushion when FSU can't reliably make FTs, and I think the Gators have the better squad. UF should also have some motivation after yesterday's loss on the gridiron. | |
11/27:
Brigham Young -1.5 (-108) vs. St. Mary's
-A battle of two teams who rely on perimeter shooting to get their scoring. SMC was a great story last year getting by Richmond and Villanova before getting blasted by Baylor in the Sweet 16. It was a huge statement for a program who can hopefully get some US recruits instead of relying on Aussie talent like they have in the past. From that Gaels team they lost their heart and soul when F/C Omar Samhan graduated, and they've yet to replace him (because I'm not sure they can). The way to beat BYU is with interior scoring, but that's not going to work here for the Gaels as they are a perimeter team now. They are known to struggle big time on the road with shooting compared to their numbers at home, and they're not in Northern California. Instead, they are in South Padre and they are going to need to outshoot the tandem of Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery. Sorry, but I don't think that will happen. Another difference-maker will be Noah Hartsock who will have the dual responsibility of owning the boards and guarding the versatile SMC forwards who will step out and shoot the 3.
11/26:
Notre Dame -3 (-102) vs. California
-The California Golden Bears were one of my favorite teams over the past few seasons because their entire basketball team had matured together over their four years culminating in the trip to the 2nd round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament. It was the last game for almost their entire rotation, and all their talent was zapped due to graduation. The new Cal team is filled with junior college players, a now-healthy big man in Hunter Kamp and the return of only two core players. The two returners are a defensive-specialist and a role-player big man, so clearly scoring will be a problem for this team. They did a great job upsetting a talented Temple team that I picked to win the Atlantic 10, but I think they’ll struggle to keep up on the scoreboard with the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is notorious for struggling on the road and excelling at home, but even if they don’t score like they can I think their style of play will be very tough for Coach Montgomery’s Bears. Purdue-transfer Scott Martin and former Mississippi State Bulldog Ben Hansbrough will carry the team offensively while they try to establish a big guy to replace Luke Harangody. Luckily, the Irish got to prepare for that a bit last year when ‘Gody got injured, so they have shown they can win without him. The main weakness for ND is on the defensive interior, but Cal doesn’t have the roster to exploit that. They also don’t put a ton of pressure on the PG, which can be a problem for ND as they’re replacing long-time starter Tory Jackson at the point. In my opinion, this line should be closer to 6, so I’ll lay a possession on a better team that won’t struggle to put the ball in the basket.
Michigan State +1.5 (-110) vs. Washington
-Better team getting points, they're my pre-season championship winner so I'll take them here on a neutral court against a team that should be dead from a fast-paced game last night.
Villanova -4 (-105) vs. Ucla
-The Wildcats are my pre-season pick to win the Big East, so playing them against a bubble team laying less than two full possessions is a play. The Bruins are playing much differently than they have in the past, as they are now running at all opportunities so I think this game will see a ton of points, which is just the way Villanova wants it. The ‘Cats really struggled at the end of last season wasting a 2-seed with a very winnable region because they simply played their worst basketball of the season at the worst possible time. Jay Wright has been going over that in his mind a ton this year, and this is their first opportunity to take a step in the right direction this season as they’ve played a pretty weak schedule so far. Nova is one of the few teams that can overcome a rebounding disadvantage because their style of play tires out the opposition. Ucla wanting to run at the same time will help Nova’s guard-focused lineup, and their bigs are built to run up and down the floor much more than Reeves Nelson or the new kid Josh Smith. Everyone has been so high on Yarou and I am waiting for him to emerge as the talented player that he’s been called to be, but even at this point he can act as an eraser on the Villanova interior and that may be enough to get the ‘Cats out to a good-sized lead. All in all the coaching matchup here is very close if not even, and Villanova plays the uptempo pace far better than Ucla who is still adapting to it. I’m nervous about the Ucla bigs on the interior having an advantage, but the tempo should take them out of their game a bit and that’s before we begin to analyze the location. With the game at MSG, a place Villanova plays every season at least once, this may be the first time these Ucla players have been there so the spectacle will have an effect along with the travel from the left coast. Teams going east have problems when they cross time zones, which the Bruins cross each and every one, and to play a fast-paced game at 6 p.m. is too much to ask for a team still adjusting to their new gameplan.
11/23:
La Salle +6 (-105) vs. Providence
-Besides my beloved Texas Longhorns, PC is probably my 2nd favorite team but they are going to be awful this year, probably racing for last in the Big East. Meanwhile, they are laying two possessions on an athletic La Salle team that has been publicized as a sleeper for years before injuries decimated their roster. The Explorers have a major advantage in the interior with F Aaric Murray, who should get his considering the absence of Jamine “Greedy” Peterson. PC still has some interior bodies like Bilal Dixon and Ray Hall, but Dixon is the only one who should play from that duo because Ray Hall is slow and incapable of playing a talent like Murray. The key to this game will be the defense, as Marshawn “Kobe” Brooks will try to shoot the lights out for the Friars. They were the worst in the Big East in points allowed last year, while promoting themselves as the top scoring offense, and I think they’ll struggle to stop Guillendeaux from penetrating while they may struggle with the perimeter shooting considering the unfamiliarity of the tournament in Cancun. Even if PC wins this one, I think it’s tighter than the experts think.
Gonzaga +2.5 (-109) vs. Marquette-I love Marquette as a program because they don't get the best recruits but they fight constantly and pull late covers out of their you know what. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that won't happen today. While I faded Gonzaga in their last two games, this is a major step-down in competition and MU will have serious trouble on the interior. While I don't love the scoring ability of Sacre and Harris (with the bad ankle), they can rebound and so can the additional length off the bench. Goodson is quick enough to stay with the Marquette water bugs and Stockton actually impressed me a ton last night with his distribution and even a 3pt shot behind a screen. The depth for the Zags is going to be a huge factor, and I think they own the boards.
11/22:
Kansas State -5.5 (-105) vs. Gonzaga
-I’m not afraid to say it, but I’m not a fan of the Zags this year and I won’t be until they show they can score reliably with another player besides Stephen Gray. Missing Dominique Sutton to lockdown on Gray will be a bit of a problem for the Wildcats, but I think they can use McGruder in a similar fashion. Despite some unbelievable hype surrounding Sophomore F Elias Harris and the return of 7-footer Robert Sacre, the Gonzaga interior is soft. Add Kelly Olynyk’s feeble frame to that middle and there’s a lot of length but not much bulk, which will be a problem today. Now that Curtis Kelly is playing, the ‘Cats have a solid frontline in Henriquez-Roberts, Kelly, Jamar Samuels, Wally Judge and even this Asprilla fellow who has played a ton more than I expected. I’m a little concerned with Dimitri Goodson’s speed on the perimeter getting Pullen or Freshman Will Spradling in foul trouble, but they will play him hard on the outside knowing they have some solid shot-blockers behind them. All in all, K-State is a complete team that I think will be playing on the final weekend of the season. Seeing them favored by less than two possessions against a team that will struggle to score and rebound is something I have to get involved with, even if I try my hardest not to bet against the Zags in non-conference play against the big boys because they always show up. While the game isn’t at the Octagon of Doom, there should be a big advantage to the ‘Cats with fans and less travel time. That’s more than enough for them to cover this spread.
11/21:
Vandy +4 (-107) vs. North Carolina
-I just don't buy UNC as of yet and I think they'll struggle containing Vandy's two amazing shooters
Xavier ML (+103) vs. Seton Hall
-Grave concerns with the SHU defense after letting a poor offensive team in Alabama shoot such a high percentage on Friday. I do like the Hall this year, but Jeremy Hazell's broken wrist is going to be a major problem for the Pirates. Hazell was their go-to scorer and he's the guy they want at the line when they need to knock down some pivotal FTs, which I think leads the Hall to feel lost down the stretch. In a game lined below a possession, that is a major problem. On the other side is Xavier, a perennial NCAA tournament team that is also trying to find themselves after G Jordan Crawford jumped early to the professional ranks. Crawford was their go-to scorer like Hazell, but he's been gone for a much longer time so that means Chris Mack's team has already adjusted to playing without him. I think Xavier has an advantage on the interior with experienced C Jamel McLean and F Kenny Frease who has yet to become the guy people expected. Their size is going to make it hard for Herb Pope to score and you never know how he'll react to a poor shooting game defensively and with his emotions. Both backcourts are experienced and talented, but I think SHU will struggle to score today and that will make it very tough for them to beat a solid team.
Minnesota +4 vs. West Virginia
-WVU treated me very well last season, but unfortunately they've lost too much to be the same team that made the F4. They have serious issues scoring the basketball, not evidenced by Casey Mitchell's scoring eruption in their last game, but let me promise you he hasn't done remotely enough to be the 'Neers go-to-guy. I got burned fading Minnesota with a play on Wofford earlier this year that I lost because of their defensive play. WVU needs easy buckets to score consistently, and that's not exactly possible with their current roster unless guys expected to step up like Kevin Jones actually do what is expected of them. I think the athletic interior that Tubby Smith currently has is going to be a huge problem for a WVU team that usually out-rebounds anyone that steps on the court with them because Vandy beat them soundly in the 2nd half en route to their big comeback. It sucks that G Devoe Joseph is suspended from Minnesota as he may be their best player, but the return of Al Nolen should do enough to sure up the PG position. I'm not in the group that thinks we have the wrong favorite here, but getting over a possession forced my hand.
11/20:
Siena +4.5 (-110) @ Northeastern
-This Siena team lost a ton from last year, but they should be able to exploit Northeastern's weak interior defense with Ryan Rossiter as he is much more talented than SIU big man Gene Teague who had success on Tuesday morning. Both teams lost a lot off of last year's team, but Matt Janning's graduation from NE is a bigger problem because he was their go-to guy on offense. The Saints lost their coach, but still have Rossiter and G Clarence Jackson who should keep this game competitive even if it's on Northeastern's home floor.
Dayton +6.5 @ Mississippi
-Not a huge fan of the Rebels this year, especially when they have a team that actually wants to play faster than they do. Ole Miss PG Chris Warren is a flat-out stud, but I think Dayton has the "waterbug" guards that have the speed to keep up with him and limit what he can do offensively. Meanwhile, Chris Wright and Chris Johnson should matchup well with the other Ole Miss scoring threats who rely on being too quick for big guys and too tall for smaller players to handle. All in all, Dayton is a tournament team in my mind and they're playing a Rebels team that shouldn't have a huge fan support today considering the football team in a football-crazed conference is currently in a battle with LSU. Not sure what idiot scheduled this game at this time, but thanks and thanks for too many points.
11/19:
Siena +4.5 (-110) @ Northeastern
-This Siena team lost a ton from last year, but they should be able to exploit Northeastern's weak interior defense with Ryan Rossiter as he is much more talented than SIU big man Gene Teague who had success on Tuesday morning. Both teams lost a lot off of last year's team, but Matt Janning's graduation from NE is a bigger problem because he was their go-to guy on offense. The Saints lost their coach, but still have Rossiter and G Clarence Jackson who should keep this game competitive even if it's on Northeastern's home floor.
Dayton +6.5 @ Mississippi
-Not a huge fan of the Rebels this year, especially when they have a team that actually wants to play faster than they do. Ole Miss PG Chris Warren is a flat-out stud, but I think Dayton has the "waterbug" guards that have the speed to keep up with him and limit what he can do offensively. Meanwhile, Chris Wright and Chris Johnson should matchup well with the other Ole Miss scoring threats who rely on being too quick for big guys and too tall for smaller players to handle. All in all, Dayton is a tournament team in my mind and they're playing a Rebels team that shouldn't have a huge fan support today considering the football team in a football-crazed conference is currently in a battle with LSU. Not sure what idiot scheduled this game at this time, but thanks and thanks for too many points.
11/19:
West Virginia -4 (-110) vs. Vanderbilt
-Not a believer in Vandy with the loss of Ogilvy and their inability to win big games over Kevin Stallings tenure in Nashville. They take on a WVU team that will murder you on the glass, and I don’t think Vandy can slow that process down. They have two good shooters in Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins who can certainly fill it up, but I think the ‘Neers have the defenders to make it difficult for them. Vandy is in probably the most competitive division in all of college basketball, but they haven’t hit conference play yet so that won’t help them here. WVU is missing a ton of scoring and leadership from last year with the graduation of Da’Sean Butler and the early departure of Devin Ebanks, but they return a good core of role players and they’re one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. To beat WVU on a good day you need to take a page out of Duke’s playbook last year, which simply said “Don’t Miss,” and I don’t think Vandy can do that after watching them yesterday and combining that performance with what should be tired legs. Tchiengang is quite a defender on the interior, but again I come back to the rebounding advantage that will give the ‘Neers second-chance opportunities on offense and limit Vandy’s shot attempts on the other side of the floor. Coach Huggins has a ton of experience at the point in my friend from HS Joe Mazzulla and New York product Truck Bryant, which will make for a long day for Vandy’s new PG Brad Tinsley. Tinsley’s been a role player for a while and just this season he’s taking full responsibility for the point, and he hasn’t seen defensive intensity like he will today. John Flowers is going to need to make some big shots this season for the ‘Neers to be as good as they were last year, but I think the versatility of Kevin Jones will open up the perimeter when defenses are forced to sag in on him. It also should be noted that Euro big man Deniz Kilicli is a wildcard and he may be able to take advantage of a weak Vandy frontline considering the expectations placed upon him last year as he entered his first season. Rebounding and defense win this one for WVU.
Seton Hall -2 (-107) vs. Alabama -The Pirates are one of my “buy” teams this year as I think they return a solid core of players and have a better coach in former Louisville assistant Kevin Willard. They are a little undersized in the interior, but they play good defense and have a large number of scoring threats on the perimeter along with the ability to get up and down the floor. Last season they played in Puerto Rico and according to broadcasters spent more time in the pool than on the practice court, so I think there will be a more business-like attitude from the Hall this season and Willard’s a disciple of Rick Pitino so I’m sure he’ll keep it serious. As for the team they’re facing, Alabama has some talent and a young coach who should bring this program to an NCAA tournament before too long. Their best player is F JaMychal Green, who should be able to score a few in the post today, but besides him I think the Tide will really struggle. Their guards haven’t been great since Ronald Steele’s injury-plagued career came to an end, and although they have new blood there and some returning talent I think the Hall’s defensive-minded guards will be able to disrupt Alabama’s backcourt with their constant pressure. I expect the Hall to look to run at every opportunity this year, which is tough on poor defensive teams and teams with slow big guys, but that does not describe the Pirates whatsoever. SHU should be able to get some production out of their interior from experienced players like Jeff Robinson and Herb Pope (even with the heart problems that almost cost him his life in the offseason), and they have a stable of guys to play the point. Knockdown shooter Jeremy Hazell will be the key this season with his stellar shooting ability and his skill at the charity stripe putting games away. This game should be much higher than a possession, so I’m happy to get involved with the more talented and more experienced team. 11/18:
South Florida +7.5 (-105) @ Central Florida
Sorry but this line is too high, and I’m playing it even though the USF Bulls are struggling to replace their go-to-guy after Dominique Jones graduated and took his talents to the NBA. South Florida has been a project under Stan Heath, who has successfully stolen away a big recruit from Maryland and looks like he’s slowly starting to get some talent on his squad. They are very poor in the backcourt after the loss of Jones, and they are making up for his scoring so far this season with bench players. This is normally a scary thing, but anyone that can pick up the slack in the backcourt is acceptable, especially when you have talent in the frontcourt. The aforementioned Maryland recruit, F Augustus Gilchrist, has dealt with injury problems in his college career to the point where he’s still relatively unknown despite being polished on both ends of the floor. He teams with Jarrid Famous in a duo that makes it very difficult to get easy buckets on the interior. While the Bulls haven’t ever been able to score the ball in a prolific fashion, except when they play my hometown team Providence, I’m expecting Gilchrist to take on a bigger role offensively and I think he can do that against a weak UCF frontcourt tonight. The Knights are at home and this is probably one of their bigger games on the season getting to host a Big East team, but the travel isn’t too bad and I think they aren’t talented enough to blow this team out. The Bulls have an advantage on the boards and with interior defense, plus the Knights don’t have a pure scorer to take advantage of USF’s backcourt weakness. I’m not sure if the Bulls win this game, but I’ll take my chances with a three-possession dog who might be able to score at will in the inside. UCF Head Coach Donnie Jones is upfront in saying he doesn’t have the athletes to play his high-tempo offense that succeeded at Marshall, and I think that is good for a USF team that doesn’t score too much anyways. If the Bulls win the pace battle and keep it low-scoring I think they cover.
11/17:
South Florida +7.5 (-105) @ Central Florida
Sorry but this line is too high, and I’m playing it even though the USF Bulls are struggling to replace their go-to-guy after Dominique Jones graduated and took his talents to the NBA. South Florida has been a project under Stan Heath, who has successfully stolen away a big recruit from Maryland and looks like he’s slowly starting to get some talent on his squad. They are very poor in the backcourt after the loss of Jones, and they are making up for his scoring so far this season with bench players. This is normally a scary thing, but anyone that can pick up the slack in the backcourt is acceptable, especially when you have talent in the frontcourt. The aforementioned Maryland recruit, F Augustus Gilchrist, has dealt with injury problems in his college career to the point where he’s still relatively unknown despite being polished on both ends of the floor. He teams with Jarrid Famous in a duo that makes it very difficult to get easy buckets on the interior. While the Bulls haven’t ever been able to score the ball in a prolific fashion, except when they play my hometown team Providence, I’m expecting Gilchrist to take on a bigger role offensively and I think he can do that against a weak UCF frontcourt tonight. The Knights are at home and this is probably one of their bigger games on the season getting to host a Big East team, but the travel isn’t too bad and I think they aren’t talented enough to blow this team out. The Bulls have an advantage on the boards and with interior defense, plus the Knights don’t have a pure scorer to take advantage of USF’s backcourt weakness. I’m not sure if the Bulls win this game, but I’ll take my chances with a three-possession dog who might be able to score at will in the inside. UCF Head Coach Donnie Jones is upfront in saying he doesn’t have the athletes to play his high-tempo offense that succeeded at Marshall, and I think that is good for a USF team that doesn’t score too much anyways. If the Bulls win the pace battle and keep it low-scoring I think they cover.
11/17:
Columbia +18.5 (-105) @ St. John’s
-I’m far from in love with this Lions squad, but this is a situational play at its best. SJU wasted a lot of energy trying to come back on the left coast against SMC on Monday night (which actually amounted to Tuesday morning ET). I don’t know who made this schedule, but whoever did is stupid and I’m guessing Lavin’s partly at fault because he probably wanted a game in California so he could show off his new team somewhere near his old stomping grounds when he was at Ucla. I actually like the Johnnies this year, but they will always struggle scoring the ball and I think the travel will make for some really tired legs. If the game was at MSG I’d be really pleased because it’s such a hard place to shoot for college kids, but the Carnesecca Center will have to do. The Lions have some size on the interior and their oft-injured bigs seem like they’re healthy for this game. Columbia actually played on Monday and finished their game at home against Maryland-Eastern Shore so their travel to Queens would be measured in minutes while SJU’s would be in hours or thousands of miles. The visitors must be a really poor team to even sniff this sort of line, but it should really be much shorter considering the travel problems squarely on one side of the coin. I don’t really remember Lavin on ESPN siding with coaches who like to run up the score, so this game is basically just hoping the Lions survive the certain scoring runs that the better and more talented team will have. I think Columbia can score as they showed that with 71 against LaSalle in the opener, and less importantly breaking the century mark against a much poorer team in MD-Eastern Shore, but all they need to do is avoid getting blown out and I think the tired legs will help them stay in the low DDs. 11/16:
Georgia -4.5 (-110) vs. Colorado
Georgia is one of the teams this year that people are very high on despite not making the tournament last year. They return a talented big man in Trey Thompkins and an above-the-rim talent in Travis Leslie along with a solid PG and they have a good coach. That is a great combination for what should be the most competitive division in college basketball, the SEC East. Colorado comes in with some expectations as well, which is rare for the Buffs, but I think their lack of a frontcourt will really hurt them here. Basketball isn’t huge at UGA, but maybe with a down football year the students may be in full force tonight. Even if they aren’t, it’s always a tough travel from Boulder to the east coast and what comes with travel is home cooking. I’m not sold on CU’s defense, nor on their new coach Tad Boyle who supposedly impressed a lot of people at UNC-North and I do like the in-state hire. Alec Burks and Cory Higgins can certainly fill it up, but I don’t think they can play good enough defense nor can they keep the Dawgs off the boards enough to stay within the 4 ½ points.
New Mexico -3.5 (-110) vs. Arizona State
UNM is going to be worse than last year, as is Arizona State. The major reason why I’m making this play is the HCA that the Lobos have in The Pit, but I also think they have an advantage in the interior. ASU may play a 5-guard lineup this year with 6’8” F Rihards Kuksiks playing like a true European player that doesn’t want to mix it up in the lane. The Lobos have a pretty green frontcourt, but they at least have players that can do some damage with some experience returning and a Tennessee transfer who is very athletic to the point where Steve Alford is ooh-ing and ahh-ing every chance he gets. Missing G Darrington Hobson will be a huge problem because he took the team on his shoulders every night and G/F Roman Martinez’s 3pt shot will be tough to replace, but they return their leader in PG Dairese Gary who is very important to the team’s success. He will take over for Martinez as the glue guy, and I think this line is too short considering the Sun Devils weakness inside and the overwhelming atmosphere.
North Texas +2 (-110) vs. Texas Tech
-I actually like Texas Tech this year with the Singletary-Roberson combination, but I think they’re walking into a hornet’s nest here tonight. UNT has had a ton of success over the years against BCS opponents, and I don’t expect that to stop when Head Coach Jonny Jones has his best Mean Green team in his tenure at the school. Denton should be rockin’ for the Red Raiders arrival, and I think Tristan Thompson can outscore Singletary. TTU is weak on the interior, and short with Singletary sometimes playing the 4 in Pat Knight’s rotation, which I don’t expect UNT to kill them on but I do think they can get some easy buckets and win the rebounding battle. At home that should be enough with the points when TTU is the favorite based on name recognition and not on the talent on the team.
San Diego State +6 (-105) @ Gonzaga
-Hate to play a road team heading into the Kennel, but SDSU is one of my sleepers this year that could easily make it into the E8 and maybe even sneak into the last spot in my final 4. The loss of Matt "I don't show up in big games" Bouldin is bigger than that nickname suggests, as he was at least someone Gonzaga opponents had to worry about in their defensive gameplanning. Without him they have Demetri Goodson handling almost all of the PG duties, and he's not a true scoring threat except for the layups. Their best returning player is Stephen Gray, because he is a jack of all trades, but F Elias Harris gets a ton of publicity without being able to create much offense on his own. He and SDSU F Kawhi Leonard should be quite a match-up to watch tonight, which leaves 7'0" big man Robert Sacre. He should get his tonight, but I think SDSU's quality defense will keep them in this game late. This should be less than a possession, and when it got to a full two I had to play the Aztecs.
11/15:
Wofford +10.5 (-102) @ Clemson
Another trip to the "Wofford better pay me" store as I lost their last game against Minnesota. This interstate battle should feature an underdog who would love nothing more than to beat the state's basketball power, and they have to dispel the doubts after their terrible shooting performance @Minnesota. Clemson is changing styles completely from Purnell to their new coach Brad Brownell, and the slow pace should mean less points and that will help the Terriers covering chances. Noah Dahlman needs to shoot better, and I think this is a game the dog can win SU so I'll gladly take DDs.
San Diego +15 (+100) @ Stanford
Like the Toreros big men and I don't think Stanford will be a good team this year. They have one great scorer in Green, but I don't think that's enough to win by 16 in what should be a slow game if USD gets to run their pace, which they should.
11/14:
Indiana -7 (-110) vs. Wright State
-WSU should be a good team in the Horizon this year, but they are going to struggle in the frontcourt. The FC is where teams can take advantage of Indiana, but because Wright State can't do this I think they'll struggle trying to stay competitive in what should be an enormous crowd in Assembly Hall. The Indiana HCA is impressive, not as important as Cameron Indoor but it is certainly comparable because people in the state care about Indiana basketball more than almost anything else. The Hoosiers are one of my "buy" teams this year as they have some great perimeter players who missed a lot of time last year due to injury. Tom Pritchard should be able to take advantage of Wright State on the interior, and I think it will be very tough for the Raiders to compete with what should be a hot shooting team opening the year at home.
11/13:
George Mason -7.5 (-105) vs. Harvard
-GMU has an experienced roster losing zero starters and only one senior from last season, so I think the growing pains of experience for Jim Larranaga's club are gone. They were bad defensively last year in a very defensive conference, so of course they would be inconsistent, but I think with experience and a coach like Larranaga they will improve big time. Meanwhile, Tommy Amaker brings in a Harvard team that is talented but raw without their star. Jeremy Lin is an NBA player from the Ivy League, which is certainly rare, and I think the Crimson are going to struggle not having him in the lineup to bail out bad possessions with a good shot. While the Crimson certainly have some height on the interior, I think they're going to struggle to score and that will make it hard for them to keep it within single-digits. The GMU FT woes were well-documented last year, and they surely worked on that in the off-season.
San Diego State -6 (-108) @ Long Beach State
-I have SDSU as one of my sleepers this year with enough talent to reach the F4. Road teams in college athletics are very difficult to trust, but they matchup very well with the Dirtbags. LBSU's best scorer relies on being too big for guards and too quick for bigs, but F Kawhi Leonard is the perfect fit for stopping him. I think DJ Gay will be difficult for the LBSU guards, which is their strength, to contain all day long and the Aztecs can exploit LBSU's frontcourt weakness. SDSU can't shoot FTs, but they should kill LBSU on the glass and I think that's enough to get off to a great start with a big road win before they play Gonzaga on Tuesday.
11/12:
Georgetown -2 (-110) @ Old Dominion
-The Hoyas lost last year to ODU, and a veteran team will remember their first blemish after an 8-0 start. I also think GU's early exit in the NCAA Tournament's first round against lower-seeded Ohio adds some passion to this game. While ODU is certainly talented enough to compete with the home fans behind them, I think they're going to miss their big guy Lee. Last year's contest involved ODU jumping out to an 11-point lead at halftime, and GU's inability to convert 3pt attempts kept them from coming back. I think we see a much better game from Chris Wright this season, and the Hoyas start their charge to another high seed in the NCAA tournament.
Syracuse -11 (-110) vs. Northern Iowa
-Don't love the 'Cuse this year, but UNI lost so much from their shock-the-world team last March that I don't think they can compete. They have a good coach in Ben Jacobson, but he can't get out there and shoot from distance to extend the zone. I think missing Wes Johnson's length on the exterior will be a problem that the Orange can't make up for this year, but UNI isn't the team to exploit that. I fear Syracuse on the offensive side, but I think this is a tough task for a young UNI team to come in to the Carrier Dome and survive.
Wofford +9.5 (-110) @ Minnesota
-Devoe Joseph suspended indefinitely and he is someone that could quicken the pace making it harder for Wofford to match-up with the athletes on this Big Ten team. Instead, his absence should enable Wofford to play at a very slow pace where possessions really matter and I'm not sure Tubby's kids can handle that. They want to get up and down the floor with reckless abandon, while the visiting Terriers would love a game in the 50s. While Wofford's bigs are fairly short, I don't think Colton Iverson nor Ralph Sampson III can exploit this on the offensive end. Rebounding will be a problem, but I think Wofford can hold their own with the shooting and they have a ton of experience in their returning top-6 players. I expect this to drop as it has since open, which I'm kicking myself for not grabbing, but this Joseph news pushed me over the top.
11/10:
Louisiana Tech +21 (-110) @ Texas
-I'm a UT alum who follows the basketball program pretty tightly, I have a stellar record on their game the last few seasons and I will post it in my next thread. This Longhorns team is very young and leadership can certainly be questioned. In the Frank Erwin Center tonight they host a Louisiana Tech team that played far above expectations last season. I know someone close to the program, so I followed them quite a bit, but they are indeed missing their best player Magnum Rolle who had transferred to Ruston from LSU. The Bulldogs are susceptible to teams that have polished bigs, which Texas does not have. Gary Johnson is the best returning player, because he's the most proven, and he scores the ball with jumpshots. The other members of the frontcourt, Alexis Wangmene and Matt Hill, are primarily defensive role players and I'm not sure how much Tristan Thompson can be counted on in his second game of the year. PG has been an issue at Texas since D.J. Augustin left for the NBA, and I don't think it's been solved until Cory Joseph gets some more experience. While I think LT can keep this competitive throughout, all they need to do is not get blown out. I think they can compete to the buzzer, so 10 possessions is a gift.
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