Welcome to GWarner's blog

+4.932

Dogs: 4-3 +1.339
Favorites: 7-3 +5.068
Over: 2-1 +0.90
Under: 8-12-1 -5.148
Halftimes: 3-0 +2.773

2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657

Yesterday: 1-3 -2.30

-Somehow ended my losing streak on totals with an easy winner in the Xavier game. Laid off the UNDER in the FSU and CLEM games, which turned out to be a mistake as I added the Butler ML instead and that was a loser.

2008-09 TEX wagers: 7-1 +5.848
2009-10 TEX wagers: 3-0 +3.02

...still looking for insight on teams with pace changes due to new systems or players graduating as I have a little bit of a list going.

Pace changes:
UVA-- slower (Tony Bennett Jr. in town): 2-2 o/u
UNC-- slower (no Ty Lawson): 2-2 o/u
Pitt--slower: Loss of their big 3 and that kills o-rebs as much as points being scored: 2-1 o/u
DET-- faster as they have some athletes now and they pushed the pace all night against Cal even using a fullcourt press: 1-0 o/u
Wazzu-- faster (former Portland State coach Bone liked uptempo): 0-1 o/u
TEX-- faster (not as good on defense and we can shoot): 1-2 o/u
UK-- faster (Calipari brings in some athletes and we all know he likes: 1-3 o/u

Variations tracking: 10-13-1 -4.248
-9.0: 1-0 +1.00
-8.5: 1-0 +1.00
-6.0: 0-1 -1.10
+4.0: 0-1 -0.998
+5.5: 0-1-1 -1.10
+6.0: 1-0 +1.00
+6.5: 0-2 -2.20
+7.5: 1-1 -0.10
+8.0: 0-1 -1.10
+8.5: 2-2 -0.20
+9.0: 2-1 +0.90
+10.0: 0-1 -1.10
+11.0: 0-1 -1.10
+13.5: 1-0 +1.00
+16.0: 0-1 -1.10
+17.5: 1-0 +1.00

adding:
Saint Louis +10.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame: 1.1/1 (BetPhoenix)
Rick Majerus' system preaches a slow tempo and I think that will be tough for Notre Dame's kids to play. Mike Brey loves to speed it up and launch 3's, but I think Majerus' crew is better defensively and they should do some work against a team filled with transfers that hasn't gelled yet.

Nevada-Las Vegas ML (+138) vs. Louisville: 0.839/1.161 (Bookmaker)
Louisville has a lot to replace with the loss of Terrence Williams, and I don't think they will get revenge after losing at home to UNLV last season. Derek Jasper and Tre'Von Willis will need to have big games, but I see Lon Kruger getting the best of Rick Pitino again. Also, the travel to the desert should take a toll on the Louisville jumpshooters, which they certainly have with Delk stepping up.

Bradley-Illinois OVER 131 (-110): 1.1/1 (5Dimes)
Got 19 points of variation off current pace

Richmond-Missouri UNDER 137.5 (-110): 1.1/1 (5Dimes)
Got 11 points of variation off current pace

Northwestern-Iowa State OVER 127 (-110): 1.1/1 (5Dimes)
Got 7 points of variation off current pace


current card:
Nevada-Las Vegas ML (+138) vs. Louisville: 0.839/1.161
Saint Louis +10.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame: 1.1/1
Bradley-Illinois OVER 131 (-110): 1.1/1
Richmond-Missouri UNDER 137.5 (-110): 1.1/1
Northwestern-Iowa State OVER 127 (-110): 1.1/1

good luck