Welcome to GWarner's blog

+7.232

Dogs: 4-3 +1.339
Favorites: 7-3 +5.068
Over: 2-0 +2.00
Under: 7-10-1 -3.948
Halftimes: 3-0 +2.773

2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657

Yesterday: 1-1 -0.036

-Somehow ended my losing streak on totals with an easy winner in the Xavier game. Laid off the UNDER in the FSU and CLEM games, which turned out to be a mistake as I added the Butler ML instead and that was a loser.

2008-09 TEX wagers: 7-1 +5.848
2009-10 TEX wagers: 3-0 +3.02

...still looking for insight on teams with pace changes due to new systems or players graduating as I have a little bit of a list going.

Pace changes:
UVA-- slower (Tony Bennett Jr. in town): 2-2 o/u
UNC-- slower (no Ty Lawson): 2-2 o/u
Pitt--slower: Loss of their big 3 and that kills o-rebs as much as points being scored: 2-1 o/u
DET-- faster as they have some athletes now and they pushed the pace all night against Cal even using a fullcourt press: 1-0 o/u
Wazzu-- faster (former Portland State coach Bone liked uptempo): 0-1 o/u
TEX-- faster (not as good on defense and we can shoot): 1-2 o/u
UK-- faster (Calipari brings in some athletes and we all know he likes: 1-3 o/u

Variations tracking: 9-10-1 -1.948
-9.0: 1-0 +1.00
-8.5: 1-0 +1.00
+4.0: 0-1 -0.998
+5.5: 0-1-1 -1.10
+6.0: 1-0 +1.00
+6.5: 0-1 -1.10
+7.5: 1-0 +1.00
+8.0: 0-1 -1.10
+8.5: 1-2 -1.20
+9.0: 2-1 +0.90
+10.0: 0-1 -1.10
+11.0: 0-1 -1.10
+13.5: 1-0 +1.00
+16.0: 0-1 -1.10
+17.5: 1-0 +1.00

adding:
Long Beach St-Clemson UNDER 147.5 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
Variation of 6.5 points from this year's pace. No Oglesby makes me think they can't immediately get off pace with some deep 3's, and that should allow LBSU to pack in their defense to try and keep Trevor Booker off the boards.

Portland-Minnesota OVER 136.5 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
Portland is this year's cinderella at this point, and they like to shoot open shots. Tubby has been running more than last year, and his team seemed to hit some big 3's last night to beat me on my Butler ML play. I don't see it stopping.

Old Dominion-Missouri UNDER 143 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
I have 8.5 points of variation from my average, and 10.5 from this season. Still unsure which to count in my variation tracking, but I'm thinking that I'll use the averages for a bit unless the play was made based on a pace change.

Weber St-Brigham Young UNDER 150 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
I'm seeing 7.5 points of variation here, and 5 on this year's pace numbers.

current card:
Long Beach St-Clemson UNDER 147.5 (-110): 1.1/1
Portland-Minnesota OVER 136.5 (-110): 1.1/1
Old Dominion-Missouri UNDER 143 (-110): 1.1/1
Weber St-Brigham Young UNDER 150 (-110): 1.1/1

good luck