Welcome to GWarner's blog

+7.268

Dogs: 4-3 +1.339
Favorites: 7-2 +6.104
Over: 2-0 +2.00
Under: 6-10-1 -4.93
Halftimes: 3-0 +2.773

2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657

Yesterday: 1-2 -0.10

-Karl Hess single-handedly destroyed my UNDER in the Vandy-ARI game. Duke survived as my first 2U play won, but Cincy collapsed blowing a 13-point lead and then going 2/7 from the stripe in OT to lose to Gonzaga.

2008-09 TEX wagers: 7-1 +5.848
2009-10 TEX wagers: 3-0 +3.02

...still looking for insight on teams with pace changes due to new systems or players graduating as I have a little bit of a list going.

Pace changes:
UVA-- slower (Tony Bennett Jr. in town): 2-2 o/u
UNC-- slower (no Ty Lawson): 2-2 o/u
Pitt--slower: Loss of their big 3 and that kills o-rebs as much as points being scored: 2-1 o/u
DET-- faster as they have some athletes now and they pushed the pace all night against Cal even using a fullcourt press: 1-0 o/u
Wazzu-- faster (former Portland State coach Bone liked uptempo): 0-1 o/u
TEX-- faster (not as good on defense and we can shoot): 1-2 o/u
UK-- faster (Calipari brings in some athletes and we all know he likes: 2-2 o/u

Variations tracking: 8-10-1 -2.948
-9.0: 1-0 +1.00
-8.5: 1-0 +1.00
+4.0: 0-1 -0.998
+5.5: 0-1-1 -1.10
+6.0: 1-0 +1.00
+6.5: 0-1 -1.10
+7.5: 1-0 +1.00
+8.0: 0-1 -1.10
+8.5: 1-2 -1.20
+9.0: 1-1 -0.10
+10.0: 0-1 -1.10
+11.0: 0-1 -1.10
+13.5: 1-0 +1.00
+16.0: 0-1 -1.10
+17.5: 1-0 +1.00

adding:
Marquette-Xavier UNDER 151.5 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
Can't wait to see how this variation of 13/5.5 points loses, but even the average would make this a play because of the 9-point variation. Marquette is breaking in a new team basically without Jerel McNeal and Dominic James.

Butler ML (-108) vs. Minnesota: 1.038/0.961 (Matchbook)
The Gophers have some good freshmen leading them in scoring at this point in the season, but I don't think they can compete with Butler. The Bulldogs reloaded prior to last season and they have retained their core from last season and I think they're far more talented than Minnesota at almost every starting position. Also think Brad Stevens is a MUCH better coach than Tubby Smith.

current card:
Marquette-Xavier UNDER 151.5 (-110): 1.1/1
Butler ML (-108) vs. Minnesota: 1.038/0.961

good luck