Welcome to GWarner's blog

+7.368

Dogs: 4-2 +2.339
Favorites: 6-2 +4.104
Over: 2-0 +2.00
Under: 6-9-1 -3.83
Halftimes: 3-0 +2.773

2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657

Yesterday: 2-1 +1.234

-Really cold in the totals game as Illinois decided to run with Wofford all day long. Good thing I made up for it with Cincy ML (again) and also hit the TEX 2H.

2008-09 TEX wagers: 7-1 +5.848
2009-10 TEX wagers: 3-0 +3.02

...still looking for insight on teams with pace changes due to new systems or players graduating as I have a little bit of a list going.

Pace changes:
UVA-- slower (Tony Bennett Jr. in town): 1-2 o/u
UNC-- slower (no Ty Lawson): 2-2 o/u
Pitt--slower: Loss of their big 3 and that kills o-rebs as much as points being scored: 2-1 o/u
DET-- faster as they have some athletes now and they pushed the pace all night against Cal even using a fullcourt press: 1-0 o/u
Wazzu-- faster (former Portland State coach Bone liked uptempo): 0-1 o/u
TEX-- faster (not as good on defense and we can shoot): 1-2 o/u
UK-- faster (Calipari brings in some athletes and we all know he likes: 1-2 o/u

Variations tracking: 8-9-1 -1.848
-9.0: 1-0 +1.00
-8.5: 1-0 +1.00
+4.0: 0-1 -0.998
+5.5: 0-1-1 -1.10
+6.0: 1-0 +1.00
+7.5: 1-0 +1.00
+8.0: 0-1 -1.10
+8.5: 1-2 -1.20
+9.0: 1-1 -0.10
+10.0: 0-1 -1.10
+11.0: 0-1 -1.10
+13.5: 1-0 +1.00
+16.0: 0-1 -1.10
+17.5: 1-0 +1.00

adding:
Duke -9 (-109) vs. Arizona State: 2.18/2 (Matchbook)
First 2U play of the season. Not a huge fan of avoiding money management, but at worst I could sell some of this back and probably will if I can get a significant window. The Sun Devils are simply not good, and I will be looking to take advantage of them at all times. The Dukies aren't great, but they do have size which really hurts what ASU will like to do on defense. Duke is way more athletic than the Devils, also, which you can't say for many teams in the Big Six conferences. Expect this one to be a blowout early even with Herb Sendek's experience in the ACC.

Vanderbilt-Arizona UNDER 142 (-110): 1.1/1 (Bookmaker)
Vandy is an awful offensive team, but they can play a little defense. I don't see Arizona putting up a lot of points if they continue to rely on Nic Wise, but I think he's their only option at this point. Very confident in this one, but I'm a little upset I missed some opening numbers that would have been definite plays for me.

Cincinnati ML (+100) vs. Gonzaga: 1/1 (Bookmaker)
MB is moving against me as there actually is no Cincy ML up right now, so I grabbed even money as quickly as I could make 3 clicks. Have been riding the Bearcats all tournament long and I still think it's ludicrous to seem them without a minus sign in front of them. Yancy Gates can handle Sacre inside, and I think the Gonzaga guards will struggle with Cincy and their length. The 'Zags may be bigger, but the 'Cats are longer and I think their defensive intensity will be hard for the Bulldogs to overcome.

current card:
Vanderbilt-Arizona UNDER 142 (-110): 1.1/1
Duke -9 (-109) vs. Arizona State: 2.18/2
Cincinnati ML (+100) vs. Gonzaga: 1/1

good luck