Welcome to GWarner's blog

+6.134

Dogs: 3-2 +1.107
Favorites: 6-2 +4.104
Over: 2-0 +2.00
Under: 6-8-1 -2.85
Halftimes: 2-0 +1.773

2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657

Yesterday: 2-1 +1.103

-Some more tough breaks in the CU-Gonzaga game where the fouls came from everywhere similar to the games in Puerto Rico this past weekend. CU shot great from the outside hitting 63% from deep in the 1H, but I was still on pace with 2min remaining but some late mistakes by CU killed my chances. Cincy proved the Big East is wayyyy better than the SEC, even though I think Cincy will be a darkhorse this season, and UT came on strong in the 2H as expected.

...still looking for insight on teams with pace changes due to new systems or players graduating as I have a little bit of a list going.

Pace changes:
UVA-- slower (Tony Bennett Jr. in town): 1-1 o/u
UNC-- slower (no Ty Lawson): 2-2 o/u
Pitt--slower: Loss of their big 3 and that kills o-rebs as much as points being scored: 1-1 o/u
DET-- faster as they have some athletes now and they pushed the pace all night against Cal even using a fullcourt press: 1-0 o/u
Wazzu-- faster (former Portland State coach Bone liked uptempo): 0-1 o/u
TEX-- faster (not as good on defense and we can shoot): 0-2 o/u
UK-- faster (Calipari brings in some athletes and we all know he likes: 1-1 o/u

Variations tracking: 8-8-1 -0.85
-9.0: 1-0 +1.00
-8.5: 1-0 +1.00
+5.5: 0-1-1 -1.10
+6.0: 1-0 +1.00
+7.5: 1-0 +1.00
+8.0: 0-1 -1.10
+8.5: 1-2 -1.20
+9.0: 1-1 -0.10
+10.0: 0-1 -1.10
+11.0: 0-1 -1.10
+13.5: 1-0 +1.00
+16.0: 0-1 -1.10
+17.5: 1-0 +1.00

adding:
Cincinnati ML (+161) vs. Maryland: 0.766/1.232 (Matchbook)
The Bearcats are a better team in my opinion and I don't think the Twerps can handle their athleticism. The opener against Chaminade should have given Gary Williams extra rest, but I still don't see Greivis Vazquez beating the 'Cats.

Wofford-Illinois UNDER 133.5 (+109): 1/1.09 (Matchbook)
Only 4 points of variation, which isn't technically in my radar, but my offer was matched on MB. Slow it down Bruce!

Texas -6 (-115, 2H) vs. Pittsburgh: 1.15/1 (Bookmaker)
Pitt shouldn't be in this game right now. Very questionable foul calls coming on TEX and that gave the Panthers the lead. Pittman, Bradley and Wangmene (less important) all sat as soon as they picked up their 2nd foul and that's basically a Barnes rule. Don't see Pitt making the long shots like they did in the 1H, and they won't have a run at the end with FTs. Texas -4 for the game is a gift.

good luck